Model shifts

[stormandan28]

It seems I must be blind I cant see no difference in the models it seems there the same ones from this afternoon.???I don't think there is going to be a shift to the east I think will be about the same as 5:00 pm

[seahawkjd]

either you're not refreshing your browser or we're looking at different models. They have shifted east. I'm not saying its going to stay that way but its a fact that they have. I'm sure they'll shift a dozen times before this thing decides what its going to do.

[jpigott]

it does appear to be a slight shift east with the models, probably taking into account the northernly component to Jeanne's motion since this afternoon

[Anonymous]

The only shift I see is after landfall and only in the Bamm and Bamd---even these still hit Fla but turn sharper out to see--basically a U-turn. Also, the GFDL hasnt changed a bit all day. I am looking at the times and they are the 00z runs

[LakeToho]

Some of the models shifted east but for the most part the Global Models have not.. GFS, GFDL, UKMET, Candian, NOGAPS which are the more reliable models have not really shifted any. If anything it appears that things are becoming more tightly clustered. With this being out 2-3 days, I do not think you will see any major shifts in the models. I have been surprised before, but usually once they lock on to something 2-3 days they are pretty good. Not saying they are going to give an exact landfall, but somewhere close. The models listed from SFWMD are mostly tropical models (there are a couple global).. Useful more in the sub to mid tropics.

Keep in mind models are only one of the tools that are used in forecasting a hurricanes path. Focus on the NHC forecast, as they are the real experts..

[caneman]

Some of the models shifted east but for the most part the Global Models have not.. GFS, GFDL, UKMET, Candian, NOGAPS which are the more reliable models have not really shifted any. If anything it appears that things are becoming more tightly clustered. With this being out 2-3 days, I do not think you will see any major shifts in the models. I have been surprised before, but usually once they lock on to something 2-3 days they are pretty good. Not saying they are going to give an exact landfall, but somewhere close. The models listed from SFWMD are mostly tropical models (there are a couple global).. Useful more in the sub to mid tropics.

Keep in mind models are only one of the tools that are used in forecasting a hurricanes path. Focus on the NHC forecast, as they are the real experts..

Gosh Thank You for clearing this up for the excited Carolina folks. Models for the most part have been remarkably consistant. Seems fairly straight forward. Dare I say NOGAPS has been extremely consistant. First called Ivan for NC GULF and has been one that has not flip flopped(NO Kerry pun intended) like some of the others.

[seahawkjd]

I'm looking at the GFDL, GFS, and UKMET as having shifted east. I'm not even trying to call where the thing is going to hit, I just want to know how people don't see a shift to the east with the model plots. What am I missing?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

[Bane]

UKMET was last ran at 8am on that map. It hasn't shifted at all because it hasn't been run since.