12z Navy COAMPS.... Fl Keys...

[ericinmia]

Here is another model not many of you might have or see.
This is based off of the Navy NOGAPS global model.



Here is a link to the loop...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2004092312

Notice, it accurately grabbed that NW Wobble that Jeanne did this afternoon. It has also predicted the same solution for at least a couple runs now.
-Eric

[Stormsfury]

The MM5 also does quite a southerly route as well ...

discounted solutions as outliers ....

[ericinmia]

I agree they are outliers... however there are about 7 of them now going through the keys.

I don't discount anything when my families and my life is at stake. That is a poor attitude, and not a good practice in weather forecasting.

How many times has Jeanne been far left of right of even the outliers thus far. I would not put any solution out the door.

I am not saying I believe this is going to be the track, just trying to share some information.
-Eric

[Ixolib]

Outliers or not, it provides for interesting consideration...

[mascpa]

Well said, Eric.

[tronbunny]

whoa, that's a slap in the face wakeup call!
Do you think anyone in the keys will take it seriously anymore?

[cape_escape]

I really hope they are wrong!

[Stormsfury]

I have good reason to consider them outlliers ... both are mesoscale models and are good only for a short time range, afterwards they simply cannot resolve the larger scale features beyond SR timeframes ... but are GREAT for situations such as SVR WX outbreaks ...

Also concerning model outliers ... what exactly is the M.O.? is it a model outlier or a model onto something? (DT rule, here) ...

Pretty darn good rules to go by ...
http://www.wxrisk.com/Meteorology/MRforecasting.htm

I agree they are outliers... however there are about 7 of them now going through the keys.

I don't discount anything when my families and my life is at stake. That is a poor attitude, and not a good practice in weather forecasting.

How many times has Jeanne been far left of right of even the outliers thus far. I would not put any solution out the door.

I am not saying I believe this is going to be the track, just trying to share some information.
-Eric

[flyingphish]

Good Post Eric. This system will come in like a bat out of Hell. Pressured under the ridge and warm seas soon. Would not discount a strong cane crossing Upper Keys, S. Dade and then a slow bend. Should make for an interesting weekend in S. Fl.

[yoda]

Good Post Eric. This system will come in like a bat out of Hell. Pressured under the ridge and warm seas soon. Would not discount a strong cane crossing Upper Keys, S. Dade and then a slow bend. Should make for an interesting weekend in S. Fl.

Happen IMO it will not.

[KeyLargoDave]

Yoda, I'm with you. Keys should just escape again. Haven't studied the WV but I don't see the high forcing it south to 25 again.