Were arguing over a 15 mile shift here folks..

[FLLuckyAgain]

The eye is 30 miles wide that friggin line means nothing...This will make landfall in FL..there is no escape..Lets just hope this cat 4 stuff does not pan out...

[Scorpion]

I agree. The fact that the models shifted a bit east doesnt mean the people on the East Coast of FL get any less. Its just the central and western parts luck out.

[Eyes2theSkies]

I was thinking the same thing...even if the storm center stays 50 miles off the coast we are still in for a rough time here in FL

[jpigott]

another observation is that the closer Jeanne gets to land the less drastic the model changes are likely to be. For instance, 24-36 hours ago we were talking about a SC/NC storm, then the models drastically shifted south to FL. Now we are talking about 12 hour old models bringing Jeanne inland FL compared to present models skirting up the FL coast from SE/C FL points north.

[LakeToho]

It was the tropical models that shifted, not the global models. Truly slight model shifts do not mean a thing. I think there will be slight tweaks to the models for the next couple of days, they never remain constant. If they did they wouldnt be functioning properly. They are meant only as a guide, of what could be if the thousands of variables that they calculate hold true.

The tropical models at this latitude and longitude do not hold much weight, as they are useful for the most part in mid to sub tropic regions. DOnt worry so much about the actual path, but the clustering of models. Usually once they lock in on a path 2-3 days out they are reasonably good.

The best bet is to listen only to the NHC.. They are the experts.

[tronbunny]

wouldn't it be fair to say there will be a flip-flop across athe "target" a couple of days out?

[LakeToho]

LOL Maybe.. Stranger things have happened.. Forecasting Hurricanes is a very very difficult task. Thousand of variables, multidimensions,etc. Most people see the storm and only see it comming towards them, so each person you speak to is going to believe its headed their way.

Seems to me most models are clustering around the target right now.. Would be an appropriate time for this to happen considering we are probably within 72 hours of this hurricane making landfall. However, if it stalls, or if one of the many different puzzle pieces doesnt fit, the models will compensate with a shift.

So could there be a flip flop .. most definitely... Would be it be a major track change.. Could be, but as the hours go by the chances become less and less unlikely.

[huricanwatcher]

AND ONCE AGAIN... i post to a thread and it stops..... why is that? ......... too Opinionated?

[tronbunny]

thanks, I use the 72 hour time frame as the standard.
Wherever the models cluster at that time, I feel should prepare.