Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 42
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2004
...Jeanne aiming at Florida...a Hurricane Watch will likely be
required early Friday...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in
the watch area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas...
including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and
San Salvador.
A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida
East Coast on Friday morning. Interests on the Florida Peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Jeanne.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Jeanne was located near
latitude 26.1 north...longitude 70.8 west or about 390 miles...
630 km...east of great abaco island.
Jeanne is moving toward the west near 6 mph ... 9 km/hr. This
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with a
gradual increase in forward speed.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or two.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb...28.53 inches.
Dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by large swells generated
by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible along the southeastern U.S.
Coast and the northwest and central Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...26.1 N... 70.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 966 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.
Forecaster Avila
11pm Jeanne-105 mph winds, 966 mb pressure
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djti
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yoda
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Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 42
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2004
although the eye is quite distinct and there is good organization...
the convection has weakened. This was probably caused by the fact
that Jeanne has been meandering for a day or so...resulting in
upwelling and cooler waters. The winds could be lowered at this
time but I rather wait for the recon which will check the intensity
early Friday. So for now the winds remain at 90 knots. The
upper-level environment is expected to be favorable between the
Bahamas and Florida...and as soon as Jeanne moves westward over
this area...it will encounter warmer waters. Some strengthening is
then anticipated.
There has been no change in the steering pattern and it appears that
the high pressure system developing north of the hurricane has
begun to force Jeanne westward or 270 degrees at 5 knots. As the
high continues to build...the hurricane should increase in forward
speed and should be very near the East Coast of Florida in about 48
hours. By then...the high will continue moving eastward and the
hurricane will turn gradually to the northwest around the high.
This turn could either occur over the peninsula or along the East
Coast. Nevertherless...Jeanne is a threat to Florida. This is in
agreement with global models and the consensus...which consistently
have been bringing the hurricane over or near Florida for the past
few runs.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/0300z 26.1n 70.8w 90 kt
12hr VT 24/1200z 26.1n 72.2w 95 kt
24hr VT 25/0000z 26.1n 74.5w 100 kt
36hr VT 25/1200z 26.2n 77.0w 105 kt
48hr VT 26/0000z 26.5n 79.0w 105 kt
72hr VT 27/0000z 29.0n 81.0w 75 kt...inland
96hr VT 28/0000z 33.0n 80.5w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 29/0000z 38.0n 73.0w 35 kt...over water
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2004
although the eye is quite distinct and there is good organization...
the convection has weakened. This was probably caused by the fact
that Jeanne has been meandering for a day or so...resulting in
upwelling and cooler waters. The winds could be lowered at this
time but I rather wait for the recon which will check the intensity
early Friday. So for now the winds remain at 90 knots. The
upper-level environment is expected to be favorable between the
Bahamas and Florida...and as soon as Jeanne moves westward over
this area...it will encounter warmer waters. Some strengthening is
then anticipated.
There has been no change in the steering pattern and it appears that
the high pressure system developing north of the hurricane has
begun to force Jeanne westward or 270 degrees at 5 knots. As the
high continues to build...the hurricane should increase in forward
speed and should be very near the East Coast of Florida in about 48
hours. By then...the high will continue moving eastward and the
hurricane will turn gradually to the northwest around the high.
This turn could either occur over the peninsula or along the East
Coast. Nevertherless...Jeanne is a threat to Florida. This is in
agreement with global models and the consensus...which consistently
have been bringing the hurricane over or near Florida for the past
few runs.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/0300z 26.1n 70.8w 90 kt
12hr VT 24/1200z 26.1n 72.2w 95 kt
24hr VT 25/0000z 26.1n 74.5w 100 kt
36hr VT 25/1200z 26.2n 77.0w 105 kt
48hr VT 26/0000z 26.5n 79.0w 105 kt
72hr VT 27/0000z 29.0n 81.0w 75 kt...inland
96hr VT 28/0000z 33.0n 80.5w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 29/0000z 38.0n 73.0w 35 kt...over water
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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djti
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Brent
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INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.1N 70.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.1N 72.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 26.1N 74.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 26.2N 77.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 29.0N 81.0W 75 KT...INLAND NEAR NEW SMYRNA BEACH, FLORIDA
96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 45 KT...INLAND NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA
120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.1N 72.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 26.1N 74.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 26.2N 77.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 29.0N 81.0W 75 KT...INLAND NEAR NEW SMYRNA BEACH, FLORIDA
96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 45 KT...INLAND NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA
120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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Brent wrote:INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.1N 70.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.1N 72.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 26.1N 74.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 26.2N 77.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 29.0N 81.0W 75 KT...INLAND NEAR NEW SMYRNA BEACH, FLORIDA
96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 45 KT...INLAND NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA
120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
45 kts is a cake walk!
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Brent
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charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:Brent wrote:INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.1N 70.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.1N 72.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 26.1N 74.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 26.2N 77.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 29.0N 81.0W 75 KT...INLAND NEAR NEW SMYRNA BEACH, FLORIDA
96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 45 KT...INLAND NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA
120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
45 kts is a cake walk!
Well compared to 105 kt it is, but it can cause power outages and down trees. Ivan only had 50-60 mph GUSTS here and we had a mess.
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#neversummer
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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yoda
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charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:yoda wrote:45 kts = SUSTAINED 55 mph... gusts could be to 75 mph... that is not a cakewalk CHV. With all the rain you guys have had.. I forsee Power Outages and trees down.
i had that with frances....no biggy....
I see. But now with your ground VERY saturated.. you could see downed trees and scattered power outages.
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