land fall

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
cmyk
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:43 pm

land fall

#1 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:47 pm

on a scale on 1-10 could you rate your possiblities for land fall in these counties.

Miami/Dade
Broward
West Palm Beach
Martin County
St.lucie County

1 being the lowest probabillity and 10 the greatest
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#2 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:47 pm

Hard to see the future is.. clouded her path is.
0 likes   
Top
cmyk
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:43 pm

#3 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:48 pm

Yoda is the man
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Windsong
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 438
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:26 pm
Location: East Coast Central FL

#4 Postby Windsong » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:49 pm

Tom Terry just said landfall Merritt Island on Sunday. That 's a strange call, since Merritt Island, while a barrier island, is in between 2 rivers and not the ocean.

Brevard County should be on your list.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tronbunny
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1558
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:18 am
Location: Central FL

#5 Postby tronbunny » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:50 pm

Brevard, southern
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#6 Postby Ixolib » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:51 pm

Yoda seems a little more philosophical than usual this evening....
0 likes   
Betsy '65, Camille '69, Frederic '79, Elena '85, Georges '98, Isidore '02, Katrina '05, Isaac '12, Nate '17
Top
cmyk
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:43 pm

#7 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:52 pm

who can blame him, hard the dark side is to see.
0 likes   
Top
cmyk
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:43 pm

#8 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:53 pm

your right about Brevard County.
0 likes   
Top
MBryant
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 416
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2004 7:13 pm
Location: Orange, Texas

#9 Postby MBryant » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:57 pm

cmyk wrote:who can blame him, hard the dark side is to see.


Shouldn't this read "blame him who can, hard to see the darkside is..."?
0 likes   
Top
cmyk
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:43 pm

#10 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:59 pm

yea, what ever
0 likes   
Top
Dmetal81
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 9:22 am
Location: Westminster, SC

#11 Postby Dmetal81 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:00 pm

What about Volusia and Flagler counties as well, they are far closer to current NHC track than Miami is....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#12 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:00 pm

MBryant wrote:
cmyk wrote:who can blame him, hard the dark side is to see.


Shouldn't this read "blame him who can, hard to see the darkside is..."?


Oh dear.. now I have started this... :lol: :lol:

Its: Blame him no one can... hard to see the dark side is... but MByrant I will take yours.
0 likes   
Top
cmyk
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:43 pm

#13 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:01 pm

come on I was almost there. 50/50
0 likes   
Top
borderPatrol2329
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:28 pm
Location: Windsor, Canada

#14 Postby borderPatrol2329 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:02 pm

Ixolib wrote:Yoda seems a little more philosophical than usual this evening....

Yes, there was a tremor in the Force, as if millions of Floridian voices suddenly cried out in terror.......
0 likes   
Top
cmyk
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:43 pm

#15 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:02 pm

no number ratings, come on guys give me something
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#16 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:04 pm

borderPatrol2329 wrote:
Ixolib wrote:Yoda seems a little more philosophical than usual this evening....

Yes, there was a tremor in the Force, as if millions of Floridian voices suddenly cried out in terror.......


Yes, yes. Angry at the Hurricanes making landfall there they are.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#17 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:05 pm

Miami/Dade-3/10
Broward-6/10
West Palm Beach-10/10
Martin County-10/10
St.lucie County-10/10
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
cmyk
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:43 pm

#18 Postby cmyk » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:07 pm

now were talking.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#19 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:09 pm

Brent wrote:Miami/Dade-3/10
Broward-6/10
West Palm Beach-10/10
Martin County-10/10
St.lucie County-10/10


Question these Numbers I do.. yes yes.

Mine these are yes yes...

Miami/Dade-2/10
Broward-5/10
West Palm Beach-9/10
Martin County-10/10
St.lucie County-10/10
0 likes   
Top
Dmetal81
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 9:22 am
Location: Westminster, SC

#20 Postby Dmetal81 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:17 pm

Dade 3/10
Broward 4/10
Palm beach 5/10
Martin 6/10
St. Lucie 8/10
Indian River 9/10
Brevard 10/10
Volusia 8/10 Flager 7/10

Things taken into consideration regarding this.

A. Current Latitude of Jeanne is 26.1 N. I dont see her getting any farther south than this, even if the ridge strengthens more than forecast, it takes a monster ridge to move a hurricane WSW in that area. (Note Ft Lauderdale is at 26.4N, Miami at 25.4)

B. Coastal span of the county. Brevard is large and currently in the center of the NHC's path (landfall would be around the cape area). It has one of the longest ocean borders in the state. This makes it a bigger target.

A question I'd like to bring up, is whether it will exit the coast again in agreement with NHC path, or stay over land once landfall is made?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: KirbyDude25, Team Ghost and 503 guests