Evening Jeanne Forecast... left and more intense

#21 Postby **tronbunny** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:29 pm

rbaker wrote:not to dispute the met Derek, but Im going even a little further west as the wv loop is showing the ridge still poking through the west coast of fla out into just off the coast in the gom.

makes me wonder about the models again!

otowntiger · #22 Postby **otowntiger** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:43 pm

What kind of weather do you think this track would bring to Orlando? Will it be as bad as Charley? Remember we got about 30 minutes of hurricane force winds gusting to 105. Is that sort of wind possible with Jeanne on this track? It looks like you've got her coming right over us. ala Charley.

#23 Postby **tronbunny** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:46 pm

looks very similar to Charley for Orlando..but seems to be moving slower.
Maybe a little lower wind speed, due to slower movement after landfall.
I would definitely expect more than Frances under the environmental forcasts.

Derek Ortt · #24 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:52 pm

less than charley, no cat 2 for orlando

otowntiger · #25 Postby **otowntiger** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:07 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:less than charley, no cat 2 for orlando

Thats good to know. I don't think we can take another one like that one within 6 weeks. Is it because you don't expect Jeanne to be as strong as Charley, because it seems that he has less land to traverse? Charley was moving fast, around 20 mph+, since Jeanne will obviously be slower, that will allow for much more declination of the wind speed, I suspect.

Derek Ortt · #26 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:09 pm

charley went right in, while jeanne would fool around before orlando

#27 Postby **tronbunny** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:12 pm

still more than Frances at current forecast, though..darnit

FLLuckyAgain · #28 Postby **FLLuckyAgain** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:12 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:charley went right in, while jeanne would fool around before orlando

Derek what gives you the more west Idea?

Derek Ortt · #29 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:16 pm

the fact that the ridge is building on WV imagery.

FLLuckyAgain · #30 Postby **FLLuckyAgain** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:24 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the fact that the ridge is building on WV imagery.

IM no expert but it looks like that stationary trough is to close for this scenario..?

ColdFront77 · #31 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:41 pm

A local Orlando meteorologist said that Jeanne will bring worse conditions than Charley and Frances.

#32 Postby **mascpa** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:48 pm

I put a lot of stock in what you say Derek. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insight with us ... even if I don't really like what you're saying.

lurkerinthemidst · #33 Postby **lurkerinthemidst** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:07 pm

Ok Derek I also put a lot of stock in your forecast. I read your site first then look else. You have been basically on the money with your forecasts this year.
Anyways...... What do you see as weather for Pasco County? I am in a pre Andrew Mobile so will leave but trying to decide as to where to go. Your opinion is greatly appreciated. Thanks

Derek Ortt · #34 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:22 pm

dont know where pasco is

caneseddy · #35 Postby **caneseddy** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:23 pm

I hope for once Derek you're wrong...i live on the Miami-Dade/Broward line and the center is just about my latitude

The thing is Derek has been uncanny so far....good thing I still have my supplies from Frances still around

My mom is coming back from a business trip on Saturday afternoon from Puerto Rico to Ft. Lauderdale but after looking at everything I got her to fly back on an evening flight tomorrow..that way she won't b stuck in Puerto Rico

I hope the storm hooks a right before landfall, but I'm not so sure

Does anyone think that this could be an Andrew scenario without the Cat 5 winds it brought....i mean the fact that it's doing a same west movement as Andrew was almost basically in the same path and then hooking WSW like Andrew did before landfall?

#36 Postby **tronbunny** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:23 pm

still sticking with the western leanings, Derek?

scogor · #37 Postby **scogor** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:24 pm

Derek, Pasco County is just north of Tampa's county (Hillsborough)

Derek Ortt · #38 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:45 pm

yeah, still sticking to the west track. what we need is the G-IV to fly.

north of tampa, too soon to say

#39 Postby **tronbunny** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:48 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:yeah, still sticking to the west track. what we need is the G-IV to fly.

north of tampa, too soon to say

Ouch!
Geeze, I'm still hoping you're wrong, but you've had good info this season.
Are they really missing the strength of that ridge..
(sounds like a broken record- yes, they've done that all along!)
But you'd think they'd have it figured by now!

FloridaHawk82 · #40 Postby **FloridaHawk82** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:51 pm

Derek, Thank you for your hard work and excellent forecasts... BUT I DO NOT like your forecast graphic one bit. :eek:

If I am seeing your map correctly, the eye passes right over Boynton Beach (which is just South of West Palm for you non-Floridians)

This Iowa Landlubber is sick of this crap! I Took my (brutally hard to install) shutters off last weekend, then Jeanne does a loop-de-loop and heads right for me.

Conan O'Brien summed it up best while Ivan was churning in the Gulf... "First we had Hurricane Charley.... then came Hurricane Frances... now we have Hurricane Move-the-hell-out-of-Florida-dumbass."

I can't wait to move back to the boring cornfields of Iowa!

Evening Jeanne Forecast... left and more intense

great

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