Can you answer this one ? ( Jeanne )
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Can you answer this one ? ( Jeanne )
If Hurricane Jeanne stays on this currrent due west track and does not shift wnw ... where in Florida will she make landfall?
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Very Amusing, Yoda.
I am aware of the models and of the NHC's forecast. Did it occur to you that maybe some of us have grown tired of the models predictions over the past few weeks and that we may take more stock in some of the opinions of others on this board?
Thanks DMetal.... I appreciate the response as it was lacking in sarcasm.
I am aware of the models and of the NHC's forecast. Did it occur to you that maybe some of us have grown tired of the models predictions over the past few weeks and that we may take more stock in some of the opinions of others on this board?
Thanks DMetal.... I appreciate the response as it was lacking in sarcasm.
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yoda
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WaryEye wrote:Very Amusing, Yoda.
I am aware of the models and of the NHC's forecast. Did it occur to you that maybe some of us have grown tired of the models predictions over the past few weeks and that we may take more stock in some of the opinions of others on this board?
Thanks DMetal.... I appreciate the response as it was lacking in sarcasm.
Wha? OK.. I am sorry. I didn't mean that. I was joking around... so I am sorry.
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WaryEye wrote:Very Amusing, Yoda.
I am aware of the models and of the NHC's forecast. Did it occur to you that maybe some of us have grown tired of the models predictions over the past few weeks and that we may take more stock in some of the opinions of others on this board?
Thanks DMetal.... I appreciate the response as it was lacking in sarcasm.
Most of the opinions on this board are formed by people looking at the models. The professional mets, I'm guessing, are the only ones doing pen and paper forecasting to go with it. The NHC is 10X better, so just look at their track. Where the line intersects Florida -- that's where it will probably landfall.
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WaryEye wrote:Very Amusing, Yoda.
I am aware of the models and of the NHC's forecast. Did it occur to you that maybe some of us have grown tired of the models predictions over the past few weeks and that we may take more stock in some of the opinions of others on this board?
Thanks DMetal.... I appreciate the response as it was lacking in sarcasm.
I don't see where his comment was out of line. You asked a common since question, and he gave you a common since answer. Back off!
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Hey Mobile, why don't you relax? I just posted a reply to yoda as I misunderstood and now I see you overreacting as well? Really, if you are going to try and speak intelligently about common "sense" you might learn how to spell it first. I am a 28 year old mother of two and I don't have the time to check out all of the models all day long. Getting an opinion here is much easier.
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WaryEye wrote:Hey Mobile, why don't you relax? I just posted a reply to yoda as I misunderstood and now I see you overreacting as well? Really, if you are going to try and speak intelligently about common "sense" you might learn how to spell it first. I am a 28 year old mother of two and I don't have the time to check out all of the models all day long. Getting an opinion here is much easier.
No "sence" beating a dead horse. I'm sorry.
I still spelled it wrong. One more try= SENSE
Last edited by mobilebay on Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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no sense in getting stressed quite yet, we've got a long weekend ahead of us.-
ColdFront77
Forecast models have to be used in order to get a grasp of what is going on around the system. Sure, there used for guidance, but the guidance and model trends [along with the official National Hurricane Center Forecast Track trends] are important in figuring out each initial position and the general expectation to a more precise area of direction (and landfall).
As for Jeanne's due west movement between 11:00 PM to 2:00 AM Eastern at 26.1°N continuing throughout the next 36+ hours, landfall WOULD be just over a mile ENE of Port Everglades.
I have absolutely no disrespect to Dmetal's reply, whatsoever.
As for Jeanne's due west movement between 11:00 PM to 2:00 AM Eastern at 26.1°N continuing throughout the next 36+ hours, landfall WOULD be just over a mile ENE of Port Everglades.
I have absolutely no disrespect to Dmetal's reply, whatsoever.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ColdFront77 wrote:Forecast models have to be used in order to get a grasp of what is going on around the system. Sure, there used for guidance, but the guidance and model trends -- along with the official National Hurricane Center Forecast Tracks -- are important in figuring out each initial position and the general expectation to a more precise area of direction (and landfall).
As for Jeanne's due west movement between 11:00 PM to 2:00 AM Eastern at 26.1°N continuing throughout the next 36+ hours, landfall WOULD be just over a mile ENE of Port Everglades.
I have absolutely no disrespect to Dmetal's reply, whatsoever.
Ill take your word for it, you're the statistician
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inotherwords
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I am a 28 year old mother of two and I don't have the time to check out all of the models all day long. Getting an opinion here is much easier.
Well, this is just my opinion and I hope you don't get offended by it, but if you are that busy and looking for the best info I'd suggest you stick with the NHC forecasts posted 4x a day (5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm) at noaa.org. Getting an opinion here may seem easier, but the opinions here are literally all over the map, so for non-mets, discerning what's a good opinion and what's not, and the fact that opinions change every few minutes or so on this board depending on whatever wobble a storm is making at the time, makes this option even more time consuming than checking out the models all day long, which you say you don't want to do anyway. While the signal to noise ratio seems to be good on this board, there is still a lot of noise.
The NHC 3 day tracks and forecasts have been very good this year if you look at the cone and not the line. The pros have their jobs for a reason. But this board is fascinating if you want to spend a lot of time learning about the nuances of storms and absorbing information about why various hobbyists and semi-pros think the way they do. However, if you are a busy mom it doesn't sound like you have the time for sorting all this out. I'd stick with the NHC and your local mets.
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