New Recon...Back to the South

[MWatkins]

Dooh!

Hoping for a fix near 26.2...instead ran into a fix near 26.0:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409240535

Looks like due westward movement over the last 2 hours.

MW

[logybogy]

[quote[Only 74kt winds in NW quad. That isn't even hurricane force.[/quote]

They have probably not found the strongest winds yet. We only have obvs 7...and based on the pressure there is little net change in the hurricane.

MW

[Dmetal81]

Pressure only up a tad, if that dry air relaxes shes going to be trouble.

[yoda]

Dooh!

Hoping for a fix near 26.2...instead ran into a fix near 26.0:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409240535

Looks like due westward movement over the last 2 hours.

MW

If it continues DUE WEST... it would make landfall near the DADE/BROWARD COUNTY LINE...

[bahamaswx]

Only 74kt winds in NW quad. That isn't even hurricane force.

Yes, actually it is.

[mobilebay]

Dooh!

Hoping for a fix near 26.2...instead ran into a fix near 26.0:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409240535

Looks like due westward movement over the last 2 hours.

MW

Mike it also looks like the winds will come down to about 90MPH at 5AM. IMO.

[shortwave]

URNT12 KNHC 240512
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/0512Z
B. 26 DEG 04 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2797 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 043 DEG 74 KT
G. 312 DEG 39 NM
H. 969 MB
I. 10 C/ 3101 M
J. 13 C/ 3093 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF968 1611A JEANNE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NW QUAD 0501Z.

isnt that 26.4 n?

[Sanibel]

I think that's due west off the u3:15 fix. Start worrying if you see anything south of that...

[logybogy]

I'm not sure usually with systems with lots of dry air. Surface winds aren't 90% of flight level. They are usually quite a bit less.

I think top winds in that quad are maybe 70mph sustained. Of course, no report on the NE quad. Winds there could be substaintially greater, the point is if it goes north up the coast, they will be on the NW quad, which appears quite weak.

that's good news, but things can certainly change.

[yoda]

URNT12 KNHC 240512
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/0512Z
B. 26 DEG 04 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2797 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 043 DEG 74 KT
G. 312 DEG 39 NM
H. 969 MB
I. 10 C/ 3101 M
J. 13 C/ 3093 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF968 1611A JEANNE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NW QUAD 0501Z.

isnt that 26.4 n?

No... its 04 min.. or .04.
.4 would be 40 mins.

[MWatkins]

URNT12 KNHC 240512
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/0512Z
B. 26 DEG 04 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2797 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 043 DEG 74 KT
G. 312 DEG 39 NM
H. 969 MB
I. 10 C/ 3101 M
J. 13 C/ 3093 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF968 1611A JEANNE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NW QUAD 0501Z.

isnt that 26.4 n?

That would be good..but no.

You have to convert from degrees to decimal...as these are posted in degrees and minutes.

So divide 4/60 = .066667...rounding up to .1

Or 26.1

MW

[bahamaswx]

URNT12 KNHC 240512
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/0512Z
B. 26 DEG 04 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2797 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 043 DEG 74 KT
G. 312 DEG 39 NM
H. 969 MB
I. 10 C/ 3101 M
J. 13 C/ 3093 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF968 1611A JEANNE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NW QUAD 0501Z.

isnt that 26.4 n?

No... its 04 min.. or .04.
.4 would be 40 mins.

Nope. 26 DEG 04 MIN N = 26.07N

[shortwave]

ahh 60minuets to degree yes its been long long day. all i can see are gas lines in my head and tree limbs to drag to the street

[Tertius]

URNT12 KNHC 240512
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/0512Z
B. 26 DEG 04 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2797 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 043 DEG 74 KT
G. 312 DEG 39 NM
H. 969 MB
I. 10 C/ 3101 M
J. 13 C/ 3093 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF968 1611A JEANNE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NW QUAD 0501Z.

isnt that 26.4 n?

No it isn't actually. You see there are 60 "minutes" in a degree. Thus, 26 degrees 04 minutes is when converted to the decimal format most of us are familiar with becomes 26.066, which would be rounded to either 26.1 or 26.0.

[Dmetal81]

I find the closed wall interesting follow the lack of deep convection during the last few satellite picutes before the eclipse, I'd wonder if shes finally developing some decent convection. Anyone know exact parameters for finding a closed wall?

[ericinmia]

http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php

Position of the center: 26° 04' N 71° 07' W (26.1°N 71.1°W)

[ColdFront77]

I think that's due west off the u3:15 fix. Start worrying if you see anything south of that...

The motion closer to landfall and when the northerly turn takes places are just as important than any southerly motion that takes place between now and then.

[ericinmia]

If the storm begins to take a wsw course as Derek had stated might occur in his latest advisory, then yes that motion is very impactful on where the storm will eventually make landfall. If it were to trek any to the south, its recurvature and landfall point would be theoretically south of where it would have been had the storm remained on a westerly course all the while.
-Eric

[jlauderdal]

Dooh!

Hoping for a fix near 26.2...instead ran into a fix near 26.0:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409240535

Looks like due westward movement over the last 2 hours.

MW

If it continues DUE WEST... it would make landfall near the DADE/BROWARD COUNTY LINE...

yeah..jeanne is an equal opportunity cane

[KeyLargoDave]

When I hear "Dade/Broward county line," I think, "That's where Andrew was supposed to hit" about two days out.

Of course, there was no recurve progged with Andrew, just the slow curve up to Louisiana after crossing the peninsula.

Boy, we are going to have a bullseye on our doors until this thing just misses us, I guess. So far this year, nowhere has had less effects, I think, than the Upper Keys.

<knocks wood>