This forecast is not Offical please go to the Nhc...
Advisory 1#
11pm pst/2am est
9-23-2004
Winds 90 mph
Gust 100
Pressure 966 millibars(By last recon)
Movement west
Discussion
...Hurricane Jeanne moving westward. While at the same time becoming less Oreganized because of dry air/upwelling...
I'm thinking that the winds are down to around 90 mph at this time...Mostly because of the less intense convection around the eye. Recon will find if I'm right or wrong!
The tropical cyclone has been moving very slowly around its loop over the last 48 hours. This meaning that this system is causing upwelling under its self. On top of that, it is mostly centered with in dry air. This is all unfavable of tropical cyclone development. For one dry air outside the tropical cyclone is not a bad thing. Why because all tropical cyclones have that. Because the air rises around the eye wall for all tropical cyclone...Then sinks on the outer parts of the tropical cyclone. It is only when the tropical cyclones gets this dry air with in its self that the tropical cyclone weakens.
This map clearly shows the upwelling of this tropical cyclone...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif
The seasurface temperatures under the systems are -2 to -3 degrees below normal. In which they are slightly below normal all the way to the Florida coast...Which is about .5 degree to normal...Mostly because of Hurricane Frances last month...This could very well limit this from becoming much stronger...
This shows it even better that the area the tropical cyclone is on can only support a cat3 at most...With pressures of 950s or 960s millibars...Which is for a perfect enviroment...Which this tropical cyclone currently doe's not have...In all likely hood the seasurface temperatures do not get to much better intill around 75 west...Even so once this gets closer to Florida as long as it stays south of 30 north. It should have seasurface temperatures warm enough to support a cat4/5 hurricane. With pressures around 920 millibars...But remember the enviroment has to be perfect for this to do so. With the dry air around the tropical cyclone that is currently would take time...
http://grads.iges.org/pix/hurpot.html
This tropical cyclone has very well defined outflow. With a round shape with a large eye. Outflow looks more then good enough for a fast get together of the tropical cyclone once it gets back over warmer waters...
As for forecasted track the tropical cyclone is being moved westward on the bottom side of a ridge of high pressure. This high pressure should move the tropical cyclone westward intill a weakness forms in between the western ridge in the ridge that is moving the cyclone to the west. This weakness is the area of low pressure around the central United states tonight. In the timing of that should tell the story..That should then turn the cyclone to the north or even slightly to the northeast over time. Most of the computer models tonight show this turn inside of Florida tonight...Mostly below 27 north...In So I'm goin to make my landfall near 26.2 north/80.5 west...This should happen some time Sunday morning...I'm forecasting for this to be a cat2 at the time...Even so the wind shear levels over the tropical cyclone are favable for a stronger system once the troical cyclone moves into the warmer waters...
Now 90 mph(11pm pst/2am est)
6 85 mph(8am est Friday)
12 90 mph(2pm est)
24 95 mph(2am est Saturday)
36 100 mph(2pm est)
48 105 mph(2am est Sunday nearing the Florida coast line)
60 90 mph(2pm est inland Floirda)
72 75 mph(2am est Monday starting to move back over the Atlantic)
Forecaster Matthew
Comments welcome!
