Melbourne Area Forecast Discussion 3am, Gloomy

[Dmetal81]

I think these forecasters have had enough of hurricanes for one year.


FXUS62 KMLB 240725
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

...HURRICANE JEANNE WILL THREATEN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SUBSTANTIAL MID AND UPPER LVL DRYING SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WITH EVENING CENTRAL FL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MARKED DROP IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1.25 - 1.35 INCHES. CAPE WIND
PROFILER HAS NE WINDS AT 15-25 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KFT. A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN MARINE AREA WHICH MAY APPROACH THE TREASURE
COAST LATER TONIGHT IN NE FLOW BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE
ONSHORE.

TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLC
AND NE STATES AND HURRICANE JEANNE WILL SUPPORT BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND 20 MPH AT THE
BEACHES. HIGH SURF WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH A LONG NE FETCH AND WILL
RE-ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. AIRMASS REMAINS ON THE
DRY SIDE WITH GFS PROGGING PWATS AROUND 1.15 NORTH AND 1.3 INCHES
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. GFS POPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND
WILL KEEP POPS ONLY AT 10 PCT WITH JUST FEW ATLC SHOWERS MAKING IT
ONSHORE.

TONIGHT...HURRICANE JEAN WILL BE DRAWING CLOSER TO THE NRN BAHAMAS
LATE WITH N-NE WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
THE COAST AND BECOMING WINDY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BEACHES.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT FROM SRN BREVARD
TO MARTIN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL KEEP
POPS AT 20 PCT FOR N CSTL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN 20 PCT FOR INTERIOR.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...HURRICANE JEANNE WILL POSE A SERIOUS THREAT TO
RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. RESIDENTS SHOULD
READY THEMSELVES FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY. LISTEN FOR OFFICIAL UPDATES ON THE TRACK FROM NHC AND FOR
ADDITIONAL LOCAL IMPACT INFO FROM THIS OFFICE. HURRICANE WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FL COAST THIS MORNING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PREVENT JEANNE
FROM MAKING MUCH HEADWAY NORTH UNTIL IT BREAKS DOWN DURING THE LATER
HALF OF WEEKEND. TIMING OF THIS IS CRITICAL AS TO WHERE STORM WILL
MAKE LANDFALL. THE ETA CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGEST OULAYER KEEPING
STORM MOVING WEST INTO S FL DESPITE WEAKENING RIDGE SIMILAR TO OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. 00Z GFS HAS SHIFTED TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
PREV SOLUTION BUT EFFECTIVELY PRODUCES WORST CASE SCENARIO BOUNCING
CENTER RIGHT ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST. UKMET PRODUCES
LANDFALL ALONG TREASURE COAST MOVING SYSTEM UP SPINE OF PENNINSULA
AS IT SENSES WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE N. OFFICIAL NHC TRACK ALSO
BRINGS THE CENTER OF JEANNE PARALLEL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL FL EAST
COAST. ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS OF RIDGE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER TIMING OF RECURVE AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL
LOCATION. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE STORM IS
LIKELY TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT REGARDLESS OF EXACT LANDFALL PLACEMENT
AND SHOULD PREPARE ACCORDINGLY. DO NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER AND EXACT
LANDFALL LOCATION...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY EXTEND 50 OR MORE
MILES FROM THE CENTER WITH DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FOCRE WINDS UP TO
150 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

MON/TUE...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND JEANNE OVER THE MID ATLC
REGION. EAST FLOW WITH A CONTD TIGHT P-GRAD WILL CONTINUE IN WAKE OF
STORM. FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ST JOHNS WILL
CONTINUE WELL AFTER JEANNE DEPARTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET IN A
NORTHEAST SWELL TODAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS INCREASE ABOVE 25 KNOTS FROM THE NE AND SEAS BUILD TO 12 TO 15
FEET LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT FCST TRACK AND WND RADII SHOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WNDS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY NOT REACHING NORTHERN
AREAS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE TRACK HOLDS UP HURRICANE FORCE
WNDS WILL ARRIVE FM THE SE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 76 84 76 / 10 20 60 70
MCO 87 73 86 75 / 10 10 50 60
MLB 86 76 85 77 / 10 30 70 70
VRB 86 76 85 76 / 10 30 70 70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
...RIVER FLOOD WARNING MIDDLE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN..

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM...BLOTTMAN

[yoda]

"MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PREVENT JEANNE
FROM MAKING MUCH HEADWAY NORTH UNTIL IT BREAKS DOWN DURING THE LATER
HALF OF WEEKEND. TIMING OF THIS IS CRITICAL AS TO WHERE STORM WILL
MAKE LANDFALL. THE ETA CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGEST OULAYER KEEPING
STORM MOVING WEST INTO S FL DESPITE WEAKENING RIDGE SIMILAR TO OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. 00Z GFS HAS SHIFTED TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
PREV SOLUTION BUT EFFECTIVELY PRODUCES WORST CASE SCENARIO BOUNCING
CENTER RIGHT ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST. UKMET PRODUCES
LANDFALL ALONG TREASURE COAST MOVING SYSTEM UP SPINE OF PENNINSULA
AS IT SENSES WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE N. OFFICIAL NHC TRACK ALSO
BRINGS THE CENTER OF JEANNE PARALLEL TO MUCH OF CENTRAL FL EAST
COAST. ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS OF RIDGE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER TIMING OF RECURVE AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL
LOCATION. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE STORM IS
LIKELY TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT REGARDLESS OF EXACT LANDFALL PLACEMENT
AND SHOULD PREPARE ACCORDINGLY. DO NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER AND EXACT
LANDFALL LOCATION...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY EXTEND 50 OR MORE
MILES FROM THE CENTER WITH DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FOCRE WINDS UP TO
150 MILES FROM THE CENTER."

That is the most important part of the discussion right there.

[dhweather]

It all goes back to a hurricane is not a "point".
Yes, it's worse on the right side at landfall, however, the left side will get some bad weather too. Sounds like Florida is in for it, again.