Jeanne really getting her act together fast

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logybogy

Jeanne really getting her act together fast

#1 Postby logybogy » Fri Sep 24, 2004 4:31 am

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Wacahootaman
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#2 Postby Wacahootaman » Fri Sep 24, 2004 4:38 am

dont look good, considering how poor the convection was 8 hours ago.

Hope she does a Floyd and makes a hard right but skirts Carolina.
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logybogy

#3 Postby logybogy » Fri Sep 24, 2004 4:43 am

Seeing her blow up like this with the high pressure ridge to the north is really haunting.

I'm getting Andrew flashbacks. The storms are even similar. Both small and compact.
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#4 Postby BUD » Fri Sep 24, 2004 4:44 am

Wacahootaman wrote:dont look good, considering how poor the convection was 8 hours ago.

Hope she does a Floyd and makes a hard right but skirts Carolina.



Thats what some local MET are thinking here.Also look at the lastest GFDL model more to the right.
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#5 Postby ncbird » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:11 am

Ache... we don't want her here in NC but guess I better start keeping an eye on her again with that track creeping more to the right.
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#6 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:16 am

logybogy wrote:Seeing her blow up like this with the high pressure ridge to the north is really haunting.

I'm getting Andrew flashbacks. The storms are even similar. Both small and compact.


For the last couple of days, I too have been thinking of its similarities with Andrew.
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#7 Postby Innotech » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:22 am

its got shear in its way though. It isnt likely to do an Andrew and Jeanne isnt much of a rapid intensification type of storm.
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#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:29 am

Innotech wrote:its got shear in its way though. It isnt likely to do an Andrew and Jeanne isnt much of a rapid intensification type of storm.

There isn't much wind shear in the immediate area, N, WNW and NW of the storm -----> Wind Shear Tendency Map
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#9 Postby weatherlover427 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:30 am

I don 't like that map I see up there right now. :eek:
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#10 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:30 am

ColdFront77 wrote:
Innotech wrote:its got shear in its way though. It isnt likely to do an Andrew and Jeanne isnt much of a rapid intensification type of storm.

There isn't much wind shear in the immediate area, N, WNW and NW of the storm -----> Wind Shear Tendency Map


But there is shear there.... and its around FL...
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#11 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:31 am

Yes, further to the W and NW. The increasing tendency may switch to decreasing. Besides, it's quite a ways off the north-central Florida coast.

The National Hurricane Center isn't forecasting much shear as of now.
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#12 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:34 am

ColdFront77 wrote:Yes, further to the W and NW. The increasing tendency may switch to decreasing. Besides, it's quite a ways off the north-central Florida coast.

The National Hurricane Center isn't forecasting much shear as of now.


I know... but it really depends on where Jeanne goes. But if she turns more WNW and NW as she gets to FL... Mr. Shear comes in... if she goes just a tad south of due south... Mr. Shear comes in...
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#13 Postby jabber » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:38 am

She is getting some cold cloud tops.... Should be a interesting day.
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#14 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:38 am

yoda wrote:I know... but it really depends on where Jeanne goes. But if she turns more WNW and NW as she gets to FL... Mr. Shear comes in... if she goes just a tad south of due south... Mr. Shear comes in...

Yup.

You can tell that by the current shear tendency? A lot of times the shear moves away as a tropical cyclone moves toward it. It appears that has been happeing along the Florida east coast; not to an obvious way, but an appearance nonetheless.
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#15 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:42 am

yoda wrote:
ColdFront77 wrote:Yes, further to the W and NW. The increasing tendency may switch to decreasing. Besides, it's quite a ways off the north-central Florida coast.

The National Hurricane Center isn't forecasting much shear as of now.


I know... but it really depends on where Jeanne goes. But if she turns more WNW and NW as she gets to FL... Mr. Shear comes in... if she goes just a tad south of due south... Mr. Shear comes in...


there isn't much shear as cold front backed up with his link and we are see an increase in intensity because the cane has moved over warmer waters because it they haven;t been touched like the waters were previousely because jeanne was meandering for the last week. notice how it is increasing now..that is why i posted in another thread that once it hits the gulfstream a 4 is possible.
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#16 Postby Anonymous » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:45 am

yoda wrote:
ColdFront77 wrote:Yes, further to the W and NW. The increasing tendency may switch to decreasing. Besides, it's quite a ways off the north-central Florida coast.

The National Hurricane Center isn't forecasting much shear as of now.


I know... but it really depends on where Jeanne goes. But if she turns more WNW and NW as she gets to FL... Mr. Shear comes in... if she goes just a tad south of due south... Mr. Shear comes in...


Whatever shear there is, is expected to continue to decrease.
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#17 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:46 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
yoda wrote:
ColdFront77 wrote:Yes, further to the W and NW. The increasing tendency may switch to decreasing. Besides, it's quite a ways off the north-central Florida coast.

The National Hurricane Center isn't forecasting much shear as of now.


I know... but it really depends on where Jeanne goes. But if she turns more WNW and NW as she gets to FL... Mr. Shear comes in... if she goes just a tad south of due south... Mr. Shear comes in...


Whatever shear there is, is expected to continue to decrease.


We will see... but there is also no warm eddy anywhere near the Gulfstream.
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#18 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 24, 2004 6:19 am

BUD wrote:
Wacahootaman wrote:dont look good, considering how poor the convection was 8 hours ago.

Hope she does a Floyd and makes a hard right but skirts Carolina.



Thats what some local MET are thinking here.Also look at the lastest GFDL model more to the right.


You know, I can't think of a time when the local mets in SC weren't saying a storm was headed your way.
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#19 Postby HurricaneGirl » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:21 am

Holy Crap! :eek: Look at the burst of convection around the Eye:
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#20 Postby cswitwer » Fri Sep 24, 2004 7:53 am

Well let's see... at one time or other, we were told not to worry about Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Ivan, Gaston... :D

TWC forecasts 20-30 foot waves near the barrier islands here Sunday night-- regardless of the track. Should be interesting.

Seas could start building this afternoon, camera will start charging this morning...
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