Friday September 24, 2004 6am
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Jeanne has weakened slightly to 100 mph, but is still a dangerous category 2 hurricane. I expect strengthening to begin again in the next 24 hours....
The movement is just about due west at 8 mph. I expect this motion to continue, since we have strong high pressure built to the north. I expect that track to stay until landfall in Florida in roughly 50-70 hours time. Then, as the anti-cyclone elongates, I expect a gradual turn northwest, and then north and even northeast though out 120 hours. However, after landfall in Florida, I expect the center of the hurricane to stay inland, and not re-emerge over the Atlantic ocean.
As for intensity, Jeanne has upwelled herself a bit while spinning in an anti-cyclonic loop. Therefore, I expect status-quo for the next 6-12 hours or so. After that, I feel that the upper level winds will be favorable for development. Also, the waters that Jeanne has upwelled are currently 78-81F. As she moves west, waters are expected to be 83-86F. Therefore, I expect Jeanne to become a rather modest category 3 storm. I have it becoming a category 3 in 36 hours, and then rapidly intensifying into a modest category 3 right before landfall. Keep in mind, Jeanne may strengthen quicker than we expect, and if it passes a warm water eddy, or rapidly coils up, it could actually be a category 4 hurricane. However, at this time, I do not expect that. Nevertheless, I do expect a major hurricane landfall in Florida. (WHAT ELSE IS NEW?)
12 HRS-- 26.1 N---73.0 W-- 85 kt
24 HRS-- 26.2 N-- 75.0 W-- 95 kt
36 HRS-- 26.3 N-- 76.8 W-- 100 kt
48 HRS-- 26.8 N-- 78.9 W-- 110 kt
72 HRS-- 27.8 N-- 81.1 W-- 90 kt (INLAND)
96 HRS-- 32.0 N-- 81.8 W-- 60 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 36.2 N-- 78.0 W-- 40 kt (INLAND)
