local met just....

[BUD]

said IF Jeanne moves faster than 10mph it will NOT have time to make that turn to the NW,and would go into the GOM and do a Frances.BUT if Jeanne moves slower than 10mph then it would turn to the NW then N then NE.I think he is going by the NOGAP and UKMET models.

[Jevo]

hmm that may not be good for those florida residents

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Heaven knows they dont need it

[Tertius]

said IF Jeanne moves faster than 10mph it will NOT have time to make that turn to the NW,and would go into the GOM and do a Frances.BUT if Jeanne moves slower than 10mph then it would turn to the NW then N then NE.I think he is going by the NOGAP and UKMET models.

I'm a total amateur but that's my take on it as well. It all depends on the relative speed of Jeanne versus the speed at which the high moves east or it's SW component is eroded. If Jeanne speeds up she reaches the coast before turning. If not, she'll probably turn.

FWIW, I think the above holds true regardless of what model you like. The models differ mainly due to their difference in the predicted speeds of the components involved. It doesn't sound like your local met prefers a particular model so much as he understands why they differ.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

mine said dust off your hurricane plan....

[BUD]

mine said dust off your hurricane plan....

What is he reporting in your area??A hurricane or TS??

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

min 1 to a t.s.

[jlauderdal]

said IF Jeanne moves faster than 10mph it will NOT have time to make that turn to the NW,and would go into the GOM and do a Frances.BUT if Jeanne moves slower than 10mph then it would turn to the NW then N then NE.I think he is going by the NOGAP and UKMET models.

the locl met is correct but nothing too complicated. everyone knows there will be a turn, the question is how far it gets before the turn happens. its real simple, the faster it moves the farther west it gets

[hiflyer]

but the local mets on down here now are the second string...miss Jackie....suspect first team will be on screen for the 11am and the noon news...also suspect will see stronger guidance out of NHC with Stewart by then.

[rjgator]

My hurricane plan hasn't even had time to let the ink dry from the last one let alone dust settle on it !!

[sunupgal]

Just wondering when we will know where the turn will take place. I live on a barrier island on the west coast of Florida and am concerned we will have very little time to get out if this is a wait and see until the last minute. Will we have at least 24 hours notice if Jeanne waits to turn in the GOM?

[lurkerinthemidst]

rjgator- mine either. Decided I was going to revise and did't even have the revision printed yet! UGH!

[alicia-w]

I too, am wondering that, sunup. My daughter is moving to Clearwater this weekend. It would be incredibly ironic if Jeanne comes across and she has to evacuate again. (We evac'd for Ivan. Thanks for the unplanned, but free, vacation, Ivan.)

[sunupgal]

Yes, I live on Clearwater Beach. With only a few bridges to get people off the islands and very little time to do it, I am hopefully needlessly worrying about this. During Frances, which barely kissed us, one of the two bridges used was shut down due to power outages. Because we have "dodged the bullet" so many times, people here (including myself...I'm afraid) will wait until the absolute last minute to evacuate.

[sfwx]

I 'm still in denial. Haven't boarded yet, but don't seem to have a choice.

Eric

[yoda]

I 'm still in denial. Haven't boarded yet, but don't seem to have a choice.

Eric

You are? Really? So how is Egypt?

[Kiern]

Yeah I don't see that NW turn happening anytime soon.

Also expect the eye wall to reform with this coming out with 110+ mph winds.

[ruag8tr2]

This is my 1st post, but thought it necessary. SFWX, please board up. I will be in the St. Lucie County EOC talking about how our shelters are very limited. Board your house up today. Get out of denial.

[yoda]

This is my 1st post, but thought it necessary. SFWX, please board up. I will be in the St. Lucie County EOC talking about how our shelters are very limited. Board your house up today. Get out of denial.

Yes. Board up and leave "de Nile" River...

[jlauderdal]

but the local mets on down here now are the second string...miss Jackie....suspect first team will be on screen for the 11am and the noon news...also suspect will see stronger guidance out of NHC with Stewart by then.

you mean elita on channel 7 miami isn;t doing any ground breaking tropical system forecasting...wella t least she speaks clearly and gives accurate information which more than i can say for highly paid anchor jacki nespral who has consistently referred the NHC as the National Hurricane Service

[sunupgal]

Kiern, what do you mean "eye wall to reform and coming out with 110mph winds" ? Do you mean from the Bahamas or the GOM? And if you do mean the GOM, where do you think it will go from there?