Hold the Presses Track will shift back Left!

[caneman]

Surprised no one caught this but the NHC has the system at
in 72HR VT 27/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W 80 KT...INLAND and going no further West. The new BAMM and BAMD which NHC has seemed to align with has the system getting as far WEst as 28.3 and 80.4 on one and 28.3 and 81.7 in 72 hours. But heres the kicker at 96 hours the new run has the system getting as far West as 30.1 and 82.9 on one and 28.2 and 84.2 on another. This my friend look to put Central and West Flordia back in play.

[simplyme]

/grumble

I was starting to hope we might get a bit of a reprieve....

[tallbunch]

I don't understand the long/lat lines....can you give me some land areas? Sorry, just learning

[yoda]

Surprised no one caught this but the NHC has the system at
in 72HR VT 27/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W 80 KT...INLAND and going no further West. The new BAMM and BAMD which NHC has seemed to align with has the system getting as far WEst as 28.3 and 80.4 on one and 28.3 and 81.7 in 72 hours. But heres the kicker at 96 hours the new run has the system getting as far West as 30.1 and 82.9 on one and 28.2 and 84.2 on another. This my friend look to put Central and West Flordia back in play.

Are we looking at the 12z model map? Cause I don't see how W FL is "back in play."

[caneman]

Surprised no one caught this but the NHC has the system at
in 72HR VT 27/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W 80 KT...INLAND and going no further West. The new BAMM and BAMD which NHC has seemed to align with has the system getting as far WEst as 28.3 and 80.4 on one and 28.3 and 81.7 in 72 hours. But heres the kicker at 96 hours the new run has the system getting as far West as 30.1 and 82.9 on one and 28.2 and 84.2 on another. This my friend look to put Central and West Flordia back in play.

Are we looking at the 12z model map? Cause I don't see how W FL is "back in play."

The are coordiantes from the new BAMM and BAMD run

[Jevo]

I was doing bench presses...

hahha j/k

Derecho taught me an interesting term a while back.. "The path of least regret"

Put the whole coast on alert then there is nothing to be said when people start whining about "we didnt know"

same thing happened with Frances.. advisories on Fri were in Jax then by each advisory they eashed back juuuust a lil... this and the fact in the last few frames Jeanne has picked up a bit of convection and speed

[caneman]

ONe coming out around Tallahassee and the other coming out over Tampa.

[Brent]

I don't understand the long/lat lines....can you give me some land areas? Sorry, just learning

This is from the 5am discussion(I added the locations)

72HR VT 27/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W 80 KT...INLAND NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE, FLORIDA
96HR VT 28/0600Z 34.0N 78.5W 50 KT...INLAND NEAR CAPE FEAR, NORTH CAROLINA

[yoda]

Surprised no one caught this but the NHC has the system at
in 72HR VT 27/0600Z 30.0N 81.5W 80 KT...INLAND and going no further West. The new BAMM and BAMD which NHC has seemed to align with has the system getting as far WEst as 28.3 and 80.4 on one and 28.3 and 81.7 in 72 hours. But heres the kicker at 96 hours the new run has the system getting as far West as 30.1 and 82.9 on one and 28.2 and 84.2 on another. This my friend look to put Central and West Flordia back in play.

Are we looking at the 12z model map? Cause I don't see how W FL is "back in play."

The are coordiantes from the new BAMM and BAMD run

OK... lets see the map...

The BAMM shows a WTH track... unlikely to happen

The BAMD... maybe... but that SHARP NE turn is suspect.

So me no trust them.

[TPACane04]

Tampa is roughly 28.0/82.5 and the afore-mentioned newer plots would be just N of TPA

my advise is for everyone to chill...I am going to watch with high interest what the speed of Jeanne will be through the 5pm advisory this afternoon...this one will be very close all the way around for FL interests...

someone made a good point that just like Charley, 30-50 miles will make all the difference in the world...and this storm will be similar with the uncertainties the next 48 hrs

[tallbunch]

thank you for the land area information

[yoda]

Tampa is roughly 28.0/82.5 and the afore-mentioned newer plots would be just N of TPA

my advise is for everyone to chill...I am going to watch with high interest what the speed of Jeanne will be through the 5pm advisory this afternoon...this one will be very close all the way around for FL interests...

someone made a good point that just like Charley, 30-50 miles will make all the difference in the world...and this storm will be similar with the uncertainties the next 48 hrs

Agreed... but those new tracks by BAMM and BAMD are VERY SUSPECT... and I have no clue what the BAMM is doing....

Would you agree that the GFDL is a good track for now?

[caneman]

Tampa is roughly 28.0/82.5 and the afore-mentioned newer plots would be just N of TPA

my advise is for everyone to chill...I am going to watch with high interest what the speed of Jeanne will be through the 5pm advisory this afternoon...this one will be very close all the way around for FL interests...

someone made a good point that just like Charley, 30-50 miles will make all the difference in the world...and this storm will be similar with the uncertainties the next 48 hrs

It's not a matter of being hyper. This track seems very simialar to Frances. It was suppose to shoot NW thru the state and ended up coming over Tampa WNW. This is important info landfall won't be that far out with and expected increase in speed. Hopefully NHC won't be slow to react like they were with IVAN

[yoda]

Tampa is roughly 28.0/82.5 and the afore-mentioned newer plots would be just N of TPA

my advise is for everyone to chill...I am going to watch with high interest what the speed of Jeanne will be through the 5pm advisory this afternoon...this one will be very close all the way around for FL interests...

someone made a good point that just like Charley, 30-50 miles will make all the difference in the world...and this storm will be similar with the uncertainties the next 48 hrs

It's not a matter of being hyper. This track seems very simialar to Frances. It was suppose to shoot NW thru the state and ended up coming over Tampa WNW. This is important info landfall won't be that far out with and expected increase in speed. Hopefully NHC won't be slow to react like they were with IVAN

Again, don't take the BAMM and BAMD models. They are no good here. But we will see what happens as the day goes on... I expect no shift of the track by NHC at the 11 AM advisory.

[hiflyer]

agree needs to be watched....and agree NHC using path of least regret by putting everyone under the gun. Not a fan of governor jeb but he just said probably the most apt statement of this situation "I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog day"

amen!

[Anonymous]

caneman I never thought they were out of play looking at the

HURRICANE JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

You will see that places such as St. Marks are equal to Savannah even Pensacola has a higher percentage than Wilmington NC.
The west coast of Florida has held steady between Marco Island and Cedar Key and remains very close to east coast points
Tampa at 15%
Daytona at 17%.

While it appears the storm will track north & east towards the Carolinas after a hit to Florida's east coast, this certainly isn't written in stone. There has been a rise in the % numbers for east coast Florida slowly such as Daytona, coco beach.
This page on the NHC is a important tool and I don't feel its used to its full potential rather we rely on constant flip-flopping models that run more frequently.

Take Care,
Mike

[caneman]

Tampa is roughly 28.0/82.5 and the afore-mentioned newer plots would be just N of TPA

my advise is for everyone to chill...I am going to watch with high interest what the speed of Jeanne will be through the 5pm advisory this afternoon...this one will be very close all the way around for FL interests...

someone made a good point that just like Charley, 30-50 miles will make all the difference in the world...and this storm will be similar with the uncertainties the next 48 hrs

Agreed... but those new tracks by BAMM and BAMD are VERY SUSPECT... and I have no clue what the BAMM is doing....

Would you agree that the GFDL is a good track for now?

I don't! I don't know why NHC insists on hugging the GFDL. GFDL is now the right most outlier so they will come back left.

[yoda]

Tampa is roughly 28.0/82.5 and the afore-mentioned newer plots would be just N of TPA

my advise is for everyone to chill...I am going to watch with high interest what the speed of Jeanne will be through the 5pm advisory this afternoon...this one will be very close all the way around for FL interests...

someone made a good point that just like Charley, 30-50 miles will make all the difference in the world...and this storm will be similar with the uncertainties the next 48 hrs

Agreed... but those new tracks by BAMM and BAMD are VERY SUSPECT... and I have no clue what the BAMM is doing....

Would you agree that the GFDL is a good track for now?

I don't! I don't know why NHC insists on hugging the GFDL. GFDL is now the right most outlier so they will come back left.

Really? Well the GFDL has support from the GFS, the CMC, the Candaian, and the ECMWF...

The BAMM track will never happen... and the BAMD is suspect because of its NE turn on a dime...

Anyway.. the BAMM/BAMD should not be used here anyway, there are not good here.

BTW, the GFDL is the best w/in 60 hours.. ask any met and they will agree...

[otowntiger]

Tampa is roughly 28.0/82.5 and the afore-mentioned newer plots would be just N of TPA

my advise is for everyone to chill...I am going to watch with high interest what the speed of Jeanne will be through the 5pm advisory this afternoon...this one will be very close all the way around for FL interests...

someone made a good point that just like Charley, 30-50 miles will make all the difference in the world...and this storm will be similar with the uncertainties the next 48 hrs

It's not a matter of being hyper. This track seems very simialar to Frances. It was suppose to shoot NW thru the state and ended up coming over Tampa WNW. This is important info landfall won't be that far out with and expected increase in speed. Hopefully NHC won't be slow to react like they were with IVAN

YOu mean "Charley", I think.

[caneman]

caneman I never thought they were out of play looking at the

HURRICANE JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

You will see that places such as St. Marks are equal to Savannah even Pensacola has a higher percentage than Wilmington NC.
The west coast of Florida has held steady between Marco Island and Cedar Key and remains very close to east coast points
Tampa at 15%
Daytona at 17%.

While it appears the storm will track north & east towards the Carolinas after a hit to Florida's east coast, this certainly isn't written in stone. There has been a rise in the % numbers for east coast Florida slowly such as Daytona, coco beach.
This page on the NHC is a important tool and I don't feel its used to its full potential rather we rely on constant flip-flopping models that run more frequently.

Take Care,
Mike

Excellent point. Mike. I'm over in Pinellas too. Keep an eye on it. I think it's gonna go the Frances route or close to.