Blob in Gulf (question)

[yoda]

Ok. So just when I thought I was understanding a little more I am shot down again. Back to the boards to lurk and learn more.
I am SOOO confused!

Don't do that!! Keep asking questions!! That way you will will learn, just as I did here.

[Anonymous]

OK...

NRL had 94L (LEFTOVERS OF IVAN) Posted as they (LEFTOVERS) moved into the gulf. The image of 94L was the gulf of mexico. Then, when it became Ivan again, they put up a page "Ivan" with an image of the gulf of mexico. However, they never took down the 94L page, which was an image of the gulf, which evidently had a blow up of thunderstorms in the southern gulf.

[Air Force Met]

They just didnt take 94l down when they changed it to Ivan.. I promise you they were one in the same.

Ok.... I am mucho confused... but I will go with what you say even know I don't think so.

The Invest 94L was Ivan. They forgot to take it down when they renamed the system Ivan. When the invest 94L was put up...Ivan was the only feature in the GOM and was a weak sfc low. Then Ivan came back and the NRL forgot to change it. Here's proof from the intensity page. Notice the lat and long of 94L is exactly where Ivan was on these dates:

22/1145 UTC 26.3N 87.1W T1.5/1.5 94
22/1745 UTC 26.3N 88.5W T1.0/1.5 94
22/2345 UTC 27.3N 89.4W T2.0/2.0 IVAN

Also notice that 94 disappears when Ivan shows back up:
23/0530 UTC 14.9N 38.3W T1.0/2.0 93
22/2345 UTC 29.1N 47.6W T5.0/5.0 KARL
22/2345 UTC 25.8N 69.1W T5.0/5.0 JEANNE
22/2345 UTC 27.3N 89.4W T2.0/2.0 IVAN
22/2345 UTC 13.0N 37.8W T2.0/2.0 93
22/2345 UTC 13.8N 42.1W T2.0/3.0 LISA
22/1745 UTC 27.4N 48.8W T5.0/5.0 KARL
22/1745 UTC 12.8N 36.5W T1.5/1.5 93
22/1745 UTC 13.8N 41.5W T3.0/3.5 LISA
22/1745 UTC 26.3N 88.5W T1.0/1.5 94

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[BayouVenteux]

Perhaps a pro met here can verify this, but aren't the intermittent "blobs" and convection over the Gulf this morning is due to a convergence zone between the upper level low over the Bay of Campeche and the high to the east? Nada, zilch, looks like nothing there but a lot of shearing southerly winds, the kind that kept little Ivanovich well in check yesterday.

[Stormcenter]

O.K. now that we've got that cleared away
so should we be concerned about
the "blob" is southern GOM or not?
It basically in the same spot as yesterday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Air Force Met]

Perhaps a pro met here can verify this, but aren't the intermittent "blobs" and convection over the Gulf this morning is due to a convergence zone between the upper level low over the Bay of Campeche and the high to the east? Nada, zilch, looks like nothing there but a lot of shearing southerly winds, the kind that kept little Ivanovich well in check yesterday.

There actually is some sfc troughing in that area. Looks like a very weak low off the coast of the YUC with some inverted troughing extending northward...add with that the divergence aloft and you get convection.

[Stormcenter]

Perhaps a pro met here can verify this, but aren't the intermittent "blobs" and convection over the Gulf this morning is due to a convergence zone between the upper level low over the Bay of Campeche and the high to the east? Nada, zilch, looks like nothing there but a lot of shearing southerly winds, the kind that kept little Ivanovich well in check yesterday.

I didn't know there was an upper level low
in the BOC. I mean I couldn't see it on the
water vapor loop.

[Stormcenter]

Perhaps a pro met here can verify this, but aren't the intermittent "blobs" and convection over the Gulf this morning is due to a convergence zone between the upper level low over the Bay of Campeche and the high to the east? Nada, zilch, looks like nothing there but a lot of shearing southerly winds, the kind that kept little Ivanovich well in check yesterday.

There actually is some sfc troughing in that area. Looks like a very weak low off the coast of the YUC with some inverted troughing extending northward...add with that the divergence aloft and you get convection.

Air Force Met is it something we need to watch for
signs of development?

[Air Force Met]

O.K. now that we've got that cleared away
so should we be concerned about
the "blob" is southern GOM or not?
It basically in the same spot as yesterday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The upper winds will be pretty unfavorable west of 90...and Jeanne will impact the area to the east. I would say not much to worry about at this time. If it is still there in a few days...maybe...after Jeanne gets out of the way.

[Ixolib]

Who's on first?