Morning Jeanne forecast... yet farther left

[Derek Ortt]

by cangialosi

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004forecast.html

graphics very soon

[mascpa]

It looks as if your projected path is farther left than the projected tracks I saw first thing this morning. Am I seeing this correct?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Holy Crap!! Thats landfall in southern PBC!?

[Brent]

Very bad for Miami...

Make that BROWARD County, close to Fort Lauerdale.

[fci]

Derek:
Still maintaining a landfall near Ft Lauderdale/Pompano Beach?

I trust your team's forecasts; you keep the "continuity" BS out of it; but you guys are an outlier to the Martin County/ St Lucie projections I am hearing everywhere.

[hibiscushouse]

Dang it!

[tracyswfla]

Which could mean more effects for the SW Coast of Florida?

[caneman]

Which could mean more effects for the SW Coast of Florida?

Looks like coming out over Tampa. Boy if this doesn't remind you of the reincarnation of Frances I don't know what does. I just hope it doesn't stay at this speed and harass up for 24 to 36 like Frances. If course if it does move faster it we would see stronger winds

[Deenac813]

oh no! I am at 26.03! YIKES!!!! Derek, thanks for your forecast. I appreciate you keeping us up to date.

[Blown Away]

Who is cangialosi? He seems to be the only
one who says it will come ashore near PBC!
The NHC shows landfall only slightly much farther
up the coast and then NNE to NE motion away from
FL. Just an observation.

[oviedofan]

Which could mean more effects for the SW Coast of Florida?

What does it mean for Central Florida, specially Orlando if anyone would be so kind

[jlauderdal]

by cangialosi

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004forecast.html

graphics very soon

cmon now...26.2 is within walking distance of casa de jlauderdal. frances didnt test my fortefied bunker one bit...maybe we will see if jeanne can rattle it a little.

[Brent]

Who is cangialosi? He seems to be the only
one who says it will come ashore near PBC!
The NHC shows landfall only slightly much farther
up the coast and then NNE to NE motion away from
FL. Just an observation.

He works where Derek works at NWHHC.

[Foladar]

Dying to see graphics, I am no good at reading these..someone explain?

[dlee]

i have been watching this board for some time but as of yet this will be my first post. i have really appreciated derrek's forecast but this one has me confused. the NHC is almost 300 miles north of this forecast. is this storm becoming that difficult to forecast? i beleive the coords to be for derrek around 26.03 and NHC to be 30. is there a sentiment that the NHC will adjust at 11? just some thoughts from another floridian that is watching'em roll in

[miamijaaz]

What's so confusing about it? The storm is due west of Ft. Lauderdale and heading west. It seems Ortt believes the north turn is not going to occur until she makes landfall.

You are focusing too much on connecting the dots in the NHC forecast. The NHC has warned against doing that and has repeatedly stated that it is uncertain where the expected northern turn will occur and to what degree.

[ericinmia]

Remember for example the miami/keys fiasco with Ivan from the NHC.
Derek never jumped on that bandwagon either, to the anger of many South fla people who were confused. A day later... the NHC begins moving their track bask to AL where is should have remained, where dereck was generally.
-Eric

[Blown Away]

Thanks Brent!! S PBC would be a long track due west
w/ no northery component! I guess you are assuming the
forward speed will increase enough to bring Jeanne to
S PBC before the high weakens and N turning begins.

[WeatherEmperor]

by cangialosi

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004forecast.html

graphics very soon

cmon now...26.2 is within walking distance of casa de jlauderdal. frances didnt test my fortefied bunker one bit...maybe we will see if jeanne can rattle it a little.

Really? Roland said his bunker was the safest in South Florida.

<RICKY>

[oviedofan]

i have been watching this board for some time but as of yet this will be my first post. i have really appreciated derrek's forecast but this one has me confused. the NHC is almost 300 miles north of this forecast. is this storm becoming that difficult to forecast? i beleive the coords to be for derrek around 26.03 and NHC to be 30. is there a sentiment that the NHC will adjust at 11? just some thoughts from another floridian that is watching'em roll in

I think this post has to do with that northern ridge that the NHC is predicting will push Jeanne into a almost sharp right turn and this forecaster saying that the ridge might not come into play IMHO.. This is my second post so please excuse my ignorance.. And, to reiterate another poster, graphics would be awesome. Wonder if skeetobite could create a map with graphics that we can put the cooridinates in and see where the storm would hit?