Morning Jeanne forecast... yet farther left

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Thanks Brent!! S PBC would be a long track due west
w/ no northery component! I guess you are assuming the
forward speed will increase enough to bring Jeanne to
S PBC before the high weakens and N turning begins.

I read that a forward speed of 10 mph would have to happen soon to keep it farther west

[Brent]

Thanks Brent!! S PBC would be a long track due west
w/ no northery component! I guess you are assuming the
forward speed will increase enough to bring Jeanne to
S PBC before the high weakens and N turning begins.

That's what he expects.

I don't know yet. I do NOT believe it'll turn as sharp as the NHC says. I do believe it'll turn, but when and where it is when it turns is going to make a big difference. If it waits til it's inland, obviously it's going to go farther south.

[FooBob]

Who is cangialosi? He seems to be the only
one who says it will come ashore near PBC!
The NHC shows landfall only slightly much farther
up the coast and then NNE to NE motion away from
FL. Just an observation.

He works where Derek works at NWHHC.

Not dissing or implying anything, just reporting...

http://www.miamiams.org/committees/AMScommittees.html

"Derek is a student at the University of Miami majoring in meteorology and applied mathematics."

[dhweather]

Derek nailed Frances, and his group has done pretty dang good with the rest of the systems, so I'll listen carefully to what they say.

[ColdWaterConch]

Who is cangialosi? He seems to be the only
one who says it will come ashore near PBC!
The NHC shows landfall only slightly much farther
up the coast and then NNE to NE motion away from
FL. Just an observation.

He works where Derek works at NWHHC.

Not dissing or implying anything, just reporting...

http://www.miamiams.org/committees/AMScommittees.html

"Derek is a student at the University of Miami majoring in meteorology and applied mathematics."

Hope you have your flameproof pants on....

BTW, there is a huge thread about Derek in here somewhere.....

[stormy1959]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
If Jeanne rides the ridge as the ridge appears right now, I would say a very slight south of west bias and then north of west bias as it reaches the coast with a more northerly turn after it reaches the GOM. What change in the ridge can we expect in next 24-48 hours?

[hibiscushouse]

there is a huge thread about Derek in here somewhere.....

I agree, this has been talked to death, several times.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who is cangialosi? He seems to be the only
one who says it will come ashore near PBC!
The NHC shows landfall only slightly much farther
up the coast and then NNE to NE motion away from
FL. Just an observation.

He works where Derek works at NWHHC.

Not dissing or implying anything, just reporting...

http://www.miamiams.org/committees/AMScommittees.html

"Derek is a student at the University of Miami majoring in meteorology and applied mathematics."

Good lord..I want Krissy's Forecast...LOL

[Derek Ortt]

that same page also says that cangialosi has both a met and applied math degree. he is a grad student who is expected to have his masters in met in december

[jlauderdal]

Who is cangialosi? He seems to be the only
one who says it will come ashore near PBC!
The NHC shows landfall only slightly much farther
up the coast and then NNE to NE motion away from
FL. Just an observation.

He works where Derek works at NWHHC.

Not dissing or implying anything, just reporting...

http://www.miamiams.org/committees/AMScommittees.html

"Derek is a student at the University of Miami majoring in meteorology and applied mathematics."

cant we get Krissy Williams in the mix here.

[Bammer89]

Where is Jackie Johnson when you need her?

[Derek Ortt]

forecast graphics are also now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

I for one am sick of giving hurricane briefings, but looks like yet another one is in store for us

[jlauderdal]

Where is Jackie Johnson when you need her?

you have elita as her replacement.

[Bellarose]

forecast graphics are also now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

I for one am sick of giving hurricane briefings, but looks like yet another one is in store for us

Ummm...I don't like those graphics. Has it right on top of me in Tampa. From what I have seen, Derek is pretty good at this. I just keep telling myself that by the time it gets here, it will be weakened alot. I hope.

Bella

[miamijaaz]

Where is Jackie Johnson when you need her?

you have elita as her replacement.

Elita is cute and all, but she's no JJ.

[FooBob]

Where is Jackie Johnson when you need her?

In an interview with Playboy (sorry, you need a subscription)...

"I'm interested in the job I have now at WSVN doing weather, so I'd have to say no," Jackie politely declines. "I can't stress enough how much this has surprised me. It's definitely been very flattering."

Can you guess what she declined? Hmmmmm.

[Sanibel]

WV Loop



This morning the WV loop shows a plunging ridge above Jeanne. Its motion is subducting slightly south and west under the stationary trough divide over the CONUS.

Jeanne is tracking dead west because of this. The eye wants to suggest Jeanne is hinting at a slight 275* tendency for recurve but a look at the WV image of her periphery shows it has actually sunk slightly south of the 30N line at its edge. Hmm, this can only be interpreted as direct west for now.

Climatology shows many cyclones that get caught under ridges and slide directly west into Florida. Andrew being a good example.

The whole thing hinges on the motion of the CONUS trough boundary. If you run a loop now you'll see no eastward movement, though many have referenced a "quickly eastward moving trough" - it isn't there.

Jeanne will pull up when she hits the edge of the High. Right now that edge is being squeezed slightly south and west in front of her increasing the chances for a direct Florida hit...

[hibiscushouse]

Has it right on top of me in Tampa

Am I missing something? He has it turning north in the center of the State.

[tronbunny]

I still don't like your forecast Derek
but, for some reason, the NHC has a problem this season with underestimating that darn ridge!
That ridge is in play, and Derek sees if digging deeper west than the NHC. He's hit the forecasts well this year with Cangialosi.
Sheepskin-schmeepskin.

[jlauderdal]

Where is Jackie Johnson when you need her?

you have elita as her replacement.

Elita is cute and all, but she's no JJ.

ims till trying to figure out who is more qualified to do the weather..maybe we shouldnt use the pharse more qualified with those two