11am Jeanne discussion

[Brent]

Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 44

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 24, 2004

satellite imagery indicates the eye and the inner-core convection
has been eroded by dry air wrapping into the center. However...the
convective banding features have improved...suggesting that the
circulation has increased or at least has remained steady. Therefore
...The initial intensity remains at 85 kt...which may still be a
little generous. Next recon flight will at 24/18z.

The initial motion is 270/8. Upper-air data this morning indicate a
deep-layer High/Ridge was centered just east of the Delmarva...
which is southeast of most of the NHC model forecast positions...
especially the UKMET...that are valid at that time. Also...the
mid-level winds across the Florida have backed around from the
northeast to the north during the past 12 hours as an inverted
trough has moved westward to the Florida East Coast. As this
feature continues to move westward...some weak ridging should occur
behind it over and east of the Florida Peninsula...which may act to
force Jeanne a little south of due west in the short term. Based on
the trends noted in the 12z upper-air data...no significant change
was made to the previous forecast track...even though the 06z model
guidance shifted slightly to the north and east.
The intensity forecast remains a little tricky. Due to the nearly
stationary motion of Jeanne the previous few days...significant
cold upwelling has occurred beneath the hurricane. However...latest
subjective SST analyses based on buoy and ship obs indicate Jeanne
is beginning to move from a region of 79f SSTs toward warmer water.
An east-west SST thermal ridge also extends just north of 26n
latitude...along the path that Jeanne is expected to take. SSTs
continue to increase to 84f over the northern Bahamas. This would
generally suggest that steady intensification should occur...
especially given the favorable upper-level outflow pattern. The main
hindering influence now appears to be the dry air surrounding
Jeanne that has gradually been working its way into the center.
Until this dry air mixes out...little or no strengthening should
occur. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS intensity
model...with any significant intensification likely not occurring
until Jeanne reaches the northern Bahamas. Just prior to landfall
...Southwesterly shear may initiate a weakening trend. However...
Jeanne could still become a major hurricane over the Bahamas and/or
just prior to landfall. Note...if expected landfall occurs a little
later than currently forecast...then the intensities beyond 48
hours would be higher.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 24/1500z 26.2n 72.4w 85 kt
12hr VT 25/0000z 26.2n 74.1w 85 kt
24hr VT 25/1200z 26.4n 76.6w 90 kt
36hr VT 26/0000z 26.8n 78.9w 95 kt
48hr VT 26/1200z 27.9n 80.7w 95 kt...inland
72hr VT 27/1200z 30.7n 81.9w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 28/1200z 34.5n 78.0w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 29/1200z 40.0n 69.5w 35 kt...over water

[yoda]

UNFAIR!!! I beat you by a full minute with it!!!

[Brent]

UNFAIR!!! I beat you by a full minute with it!!!

Go suck an egg.

[DESTRUCTION5]

They shifted it south? What does he mean more N and E?

[yoda]

UNFAIR!!! I beat you by a full minute with it!!!

Go suck an egg.

What did you say? OK BUD.. ITS ON at 2 and 5!!!

[ericinmia]

OK...
so all the people that didn't believe Derek...
from the NHC...

which may act to
force Jeanne a little south of due west in the short term.

-Eric

[DESTRUCTION5]

They shifted it south? What does he mean more N and E?

[yoda]

"Just prior to landfall
...Southwesterly shear may initiate a weakening trend."

And I saw and called that this morning...

[CL]

NHC shows inland at 27.9 and 80.7 which is well up the coast from Broward...It dosent seem to reflect any southern component...Any thoughts?

[Foladar]

they think it will go south then northward wobble again, to even out I assume.

[ericinmia]

south of track in the short term... they aren't sure about the long term... but they are opening the door to follow a more southerly course.
-Eric

[clueless newbie]

My doomsday scenario:

Jeanne's inner eye is currently dissipating and a huge eye is forming from that dry air inclusion. With no shear and rising water temperatures, Jeanne will bomb into a powerful Cat3/4 annular hurricane. The people tired from Charley/Frances will fail to evacuate/prepare properly and Jeanne will be THE storm of 2004 in terms of damage and human loss (it is already for Haiti, can be for Florida as well).

Tell me its not coming...

[djti]

they are left of guidance according to the discussion....may move further north if anything....the south is just short term.

[yoda]

My doomsday scenario:

Jeanne's inner eye is currently dissipating and a huge eye is forming from that dry air inclusion. With no shear and rising water temperatures, Jeanne will bomb into a powerful Cat3/4 annular hurricane. The people tired from Charley/Frances will fail to evacuate/prepare properly and Jeanne will be THE storm of 2004 in terms of damage and human loss (it is already for Haiti, can be for Florida as well).

Tell me its not coming...

Yes, and that will not happen in any way, shape, or form....

[rocknole]

They are doing exactly what they did with Frances, slowly creeping their way south. I suspect that we will see them closer to Derek and John's track within the next 12-24 hours.

[Juno Beach]

Seems to be some real differing opinions as to the TIME of landfall. The NHC probabilities seems to indicate sometime later on Saturday.

The weather channel is saying keeps saying Sunday.

I guess if I'm going to get hit (just N of West Palm), it would indicate a faster forward motion (saving the curve northward for once she gets inland), and would happen late Saturday, no?

[Brent]

NHC has a landfall Early Sunday. Keep in mind... if it goes more southward, it'll be earlier, more northward later.