Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 44
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 24, 2004
...Jeanne continues its westward trek toward the northern Bahamas...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas
...Including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...Bimini...
Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning
area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect along the East Coast of Florida from
Florida City to St. Augustine. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in the next 36
hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the central Bahamas...
including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San
Salvador. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in the next 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere on the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor
the progress of Jeanne.
We are reminded that from Sundown tonight until Sundown Saturday is
yom kippur...a solemn jewish Holiday. Some of your jewish neighbors
in the watch and warning areas observing yom kippur will not be
listening to radios or watching TV...and may not be aware of the
hurricane situation.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 26.2 north...longitude 72.4 west or about 290
miles... 470 km...east of great abaco island.
Jeanne is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue with a slight increase in forward
speed during the next 24 hours. This motion could bring the center
of Jeanne near the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb...28.61 inches.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible along the track of
Jeanne.
Tides will gradually be rising in the warned area during the next 24
hours. Additionally...dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by
large swells generated by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible elsewhere
along the southeastern U.S. Coast and the northwest and central
Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...26.2 N... 72.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 969 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
11 AM JEANNE -- 100 MPH, W 9 MPH, 969 MB(has DISCUSSION!)
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yoda
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11 AM JEANNE -- 100 MPH, W 9 MPH, 969 MB(has DISCUSSION!)
Last edited by yoda on Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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yoda
- Category 5
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Most interesting this is, yes yes...
Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 44
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 24, 2004
satellite imagery indicates the eye and the inner-core convection
has been eroded by dry air wrapping into the center. However...the
convective banding features have improved...suggesting that the
circulation has increased or at least has remained steady. Therefore
...The initial intensity remains at 85 kt...which may still be a
little generous. Next recon flight will at 24/18z.
The initial motion is 270/8. Upper-air data this morning indicate a
deep-layer High/Ridge was centered just east of the Delmarva...
which is southeast of most of the NHC model forecast positions...
especially the UKMET...that are valid at that time. Also...the
mid-level winds across the Florida have backed around from the
northeast to the north during the past 12 hours as an inverted
trough has moved westward to the Florida East Coast. As this
feature continues to move westward...some weak ridging should occur
behind it over and east of the Florida Peninsula...which may act to
force Jeanne a little south of due west in the short term. Based on
the trends noted in the 12z upper-air data...no significant change
was made to the previous forecast track...even though the 06z model
guidance shifted slightly to the north and east.
The intensity forecast remains a little tricky. Due to the nearly
stationary motion of Jeanne the previous few days...significant
cold upwelling has occurred beneath the hurricane. However...latest
subjective SST analyses based on buoy and ship obs indicate Jeanne
is beginning to move from a region of 79f SSTs toward warmer water.
An east-west SST thermal ridge also extends just north of 26n
latitude...along the path that Jeanne is expected to take. SSTs
continue to increase to 84f over the northern Bahamas. This would
generally suggest that steady intensification should occur...
especially given the favorable upper-level outflow pattern. The main
hindering influence now appears to be the dry air surrounding
Jeanne that has gradually been working its way into the center.
Until this dry air mixes out...little or no strengthening should
occur. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS intensity
model...with any significant intensification likely not occurring
until Jeanne reaches the northern Bahamas. Just prior to landfall
...Southwesterly shear may initiate a weakening trend. However...
Jeanne could still become a major hurricane over the Bahamas and/or
just prior to landfall. Note...if expected landfall occurs a little
later than currently forecast...then the intensities beyond 48
hours would be higher.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/1500z 26.2n 72.4w 85 kt
12hr VT 25/0000z 26.2n 74.1w 85 kt
24hr VT 25/1200z 26.4n 76.6w 90 kt
36hr VT 26/0000z 26.8n 78.9w 95 kt
48hr VT 26/1200z 27.9n 80.7w 95 kt...inland
72hr VT 27/1200z 30.7n 81.9w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 28/1200z 34.5n 78.0w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 29/1200z 40.0n 69.5w 35 kt...over water
Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 44
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 24, 2004
satellite imagery indicates the eye and the inner-core convection
has been eroded by dry air wrapping into the center. However...the
convective banding features have improved...suggesting that the
circulation has increased or at least has remained steady. Therefore
...The initial intensity remains at 85 kt...which may still be a
little generous. Next recon flight will at 24/18z.
The initial motion is 270/8. Upper-air data this morning indicate a
deep-layer High/Ridge was centered just east of the Delmarva...
which is southeast of most of the NHC model forecast positions...
especially the UKMET...that are valid at that time. Also...the
mid-level winds across the Florida have backed around from the
northeast to the north during the past 12 hours as an inverted
trough has moved westward to the Florida East Coast. As this
feature continues to move westward...some weak ridging should occur
behind it over and east of the Florida Peninsula...which may act to
force Jeanne a little south of due west in the short term. Based on
the trends noted in the 12z upper-air data...no significant change
was made to the previous forecast track...even though the 06z model
guidance shifted slightly to the north and east.
The intensity forecast remains a little tricky. Due to the nearly
stationary motion of Jeanne the previous few days...significant
cold upwelling has occurred beneath the hurricane. However...latest
subjective SST analyses based on buoy and ship obs indicate Jeanne
is beginning to move from a region of 79f SSTs toward warmer water.
An east-west SST thermal ridge also extends just north of 26n
latitude...along the path that Jeanne is expected to take. SSTs
continue to increase to 84f over the northern Bahamas. This would
generally suggest that steady intensification should occur...
especially given the favorable upper-level outflow pattern. The main
hindering influence now appears to be the dry air surrounding
Jeanne that has gradually been working its way into the center.
Until this dry air mixes out...little or no strengthening should
occur. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS intensity
model...with any significant intensification likely not occurring
until Jeanne reaches the northern Bahamas. Just prior to landfall
...Southwesterly shear may initiate a weakening trend. However...
Jeanne could still become a major hurricane over the Bahamas and/or
just prior to landfall. Note...if expected landfall occurs a little
later than currently forecast...then the intensities beyond 48
hours would be higher.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/1500z 26.2n 72.4w 85 kt
12hr VT 25/0000z 26.2n 74.1w 85 kt
24hr VT 25/1200z 26.4n 76.6w 90 kt
36hr VT 26/0000z 26.8n 78.9w 95 kt
48hr VT 26/1200z 27.9n 80.7w 95 kt...inland
72hr VT 27/1200z 30.7n 81.9w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 28/1200z 34.5n 78.0w 45 kt...inland
120hr VT 29/1200z 40.0n 69.5w 35 kt...over water
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ido
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yoda
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ido wrote:excuse me, this question comes from a meteorological newbie, so please don't hurt me!
what weather system has all of the models shifting jeanne northeast like on a dime?
I believe its a high pressure system, coupled with a sharp trough coming out from the Plains... but I am not entirely sure.
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LuckyStrike
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