HURRICANE JEANNE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
1115 AM FRI SEPT 24TH 2004
Hurricane Jeanne continues to swirl around out near the Bahamas as a healthy category 2 hurricane. Jeanne has also ever so slowly accelerated and is now moving at a 9mph clip. This acceleration if it continues may cause a quicker landfall for Jeanne.
Jeanne is currently moving into a possible area for marginal strengthening. Yes the waters are warm, even hot. But there is some supposed dry air that may try to wrap around Jeanne. Though I believe the warmer water will cause the dry air to cancel out.. causing Jeanne to possibly strengthen some more.
The current NHC path has Jeanne riding the coast and making a landfall somewhere in Volusia County. I believe the landfall will be a little further south, in Northern Brevard. Possibly around the Kennedy Space Center or Titusville.
Where and how Jeanne hits Fla all depends on the ridge and this alleged NW to N turn she could make as she approaches. If she rides the ridge the whole way.. it may keep her on a due west course and make her landfall much further south than projected. However, if the NW turn occurs.. This will be a Central Fla landfall.
After it makes landfall is interesting. Will it cross the peninsula..? or will it ride up US1/I-95 and keep the NE quad to the immediate coast. Yesterday I hinted that the storm may come inland enough where a N turn would come inland and perhaps make direct hits on the inland counties. I believe the potential of this still exists.
I also believe Jeanne will still become a Cat 3 by landfall. Yesterday I stated it could have 120 mph winds and I think that is also still possible. It all depends on the environment ahead of it.
Tropical storm force winds should be expected well ahead of Jeanne's landfall, they extend well out. These winds are between 40-73 and can still cause damage because they will persist for a longer period of time.
The other main hazard for now will be tornadoes. Tornadoes can develop in outer rain bands.. especially in Jeanne's NE sector. These tornadoes can sometimes be large.. as was the case with Ivan.
Finally.. This storms windfield may actually grow in size as it approaches the coast. This has happened before and could happen. This means TS force winds and maybe even hurricane force winds could be felt on the west coast. Everyone living on the I-4 corridor may get some impacts from this storm.
Here is the 5 day forecast on Jeanne:
Today: Approaching the Bahamian Island chain. Possibly moving up to a 10mph movement. Max Winds: 110 mph
Saturday: Watches changed to warnings by PM. Weather slowly eroding in Central Fla. Jeanne still out by Nassau and other Bahamian Islands. Max Winds: 115 mph.
Sunday: MAKING LANDFALL in Northern Brevard County as a Category 3.. probably before lunchtime. Max Winds: 120 mph
Monday: Accelerating near Jax/Savannah. Max Winds: 90 mph.
Tuesday: Just Inland of NC.. after making pitstops in Charlotte, Myrtle Beach, Charleston. Max Winds: 70 mph.
Track and intensity forecasts are subject to errors. Some as much as several 100 miles.
DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and should not be used in making critical decisions. Especially life or death decisions. For more details, please listen to local media outlets or the NHC.
As always.. comments welcomed
Also: IF ANYONE WOULD LIKE.. I am willing to attempt to forecast the winds {max} for all of Central Florida's Eastern Counties {Polk, Orange, Osceola, Brevard, Sumter, Lake, Marion, Indian River, Seminole, Volusia and Flagler}
