Ridge contiuing to build south-S Fl Hit Likely

[Vortex]

Latest WV imagery indicates stong ridging in place and the center further of the ridge furthur S and building S. Expect a W and even WSW movement later today. Landfall looks more and more likely along the SE florida coast between Miami and West Palm Beach. The bigger question now is the intensity of jeanne at Landfall.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

so when would the northern component kick in then?

[Josephine96]

I'm still not sold on it going as far south as Miami.. maybe West Palm though

[yoda]

Me neither.. so I called N Brevard as landfall...

[StJoe]

I reaaly think this loop of the ridge is the tell tale theory of landfall in WPB.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Waddya think?

[lwg8tr]

Latest WV imagery indicates stong ridging in place and the center further of the ridge furthur S and building S. Expect a W and even WSW movement later today. Landfall looks more and more likely along the SE florida coast between Miami and West Palm Beach. The bigger question now is the intensity of jeanne at Landfall.

Unfortunately I think so too. I was debating putting up the rest of the shutters. I thought an Indian River landfall at such an oblique angle, I'll be fine. A couple 3 hours of some nasty tropical Storm force winds and that's it. But the NHC position is a little more conservative than the rest of us. I am suprised they only moved the track a shade West at 11:00am. I see the WSW wobble\track and the WV imagery showing a deepening and westward movement of the ridge and it's out to the yard for the second story shutters...CRAP!!!!!

[jlauderdal]

Latest WV imagery indicates stong ridging in place and the center further of the ridge furthur S and building S. Expect a W and even WSW movement later today. Landfall looks more and more likely along the SE florida coast between Miami and West Palm Beach. The bigger question now is the intensity of jeanne at Landfall.

i think miami is a bit to far south..i am looking at fort laud(ouch) to jupiter with a lean towrds west palm and south. thats my landfall and i am sticking to it

[oviedofan]

Latest WV imagery indicates stong ridging in place and the center further of the ridge furthur S and building S. Expect a W and even WSW movement later today. Landfall looks more and more likely along the SE florida coast between Miami and West Palm Beach. The bigger question now is the intensity of jeanne at Landfall.

i think miami is a bit to far south..i am looking at fort laud(ouch) to jupiter with a lean towrds west palm and south. thats my landfall and i am sticking to it

After landfall, a frances like track or a charley north swing back into the atlantic?

[stormy1959]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Ive been watching the ridge to the NW of Jeanne and it appears to me to be moving in a more NW direction. I don't see anything on the above loop indicatiing any building of the ridge to south. I am beginning to believe the NHC forecast though I think the track may be a little more inland.

[Guest]

A few hours of some W/SW movement & Miami will be in the mix...

Of course thats IF there is a few hours of some W/SW movement,I still say Ft. Lauderdale to Boca could be the bullseye if that High stays put.

[Josephine96]

We're all throwing in our 2 cents lol

[x-y-no]

We're all throwing in our 2 cents lol

OK, then, my 2 cents says the Broward/Palm Beach county line.

[jlauderdal]

Latest WV imagery indicates stong ridging in place and the center further of the ridge furthur S and building S. Expect a W and even WSW movement later today. Landfall looks more and more likely along the SE florida coast between Miami and West Palm Beach. The bigger question now is the intensity of jeanne at Landfall.

i think miami is a bit to far south..i am looking at fort laud(ouch) to jupiter with a lean towrds west palm and south. thats my landfall and i am sticking to it

After landfall, a frances like track or a charley north swing back into the atlantic?

too early to make a projection on the curve but the ridge sure looks like it is staying put longer than NHC is forecasting right now.

[gulfcoaster53]

Looking at the link below, it's difficult to see how the storm won't track as Vortex is suggesting above. Notice the western edge of the SW winds over wester Missouri. There has been no relative eastward progress of the "saviour" trough for the entire length of this 4 hour loop. Also, where are the SW winds in the GOM that will trigger the recurvature???? The high just keeps pushing further west. Gonna need to see a halt to that movement soon or Ft. Lauderdale area looks like a big target!

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[jlauderdal]

We're all throwing in our 2 cents lol

OK, then, my 2 cents says the Broward/Palm Beach county line.

seems reasonable

[Josephine96]

Maybe it's 3 cents lol

[jlauderdal]

Looking at the link below, it's difficult to see how the storm won't track as Vortex is suggesting above. Notice the western edge of the SW winds over wester Missouri. There has been no relative eastward progress of the "saviour" trough for the entire length of this 4 hour loop. Also, where are the SW winds in the GOM that will trigger the recurvature???? The high just keeps pushing further west. Gonna need to see a halt to that movement soon or Ft. Lauderdale area looks like a big target!

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

you are seeing what i am seeing which means you are absolutely correct..we are getting close enough that we can start discounting all the models and look at sensible weather.

[StJoe]

I'm with jlauderdale and gulfcoaster....The answer lies in that ridge. It will lighten up enough in 12-16 hours, enough gor a due west course to WPB!

[indwind]

Look at the elliptical shape of Jeanne. Draw a line through the center of the major axis of her elliptical shape and continue the line to the coast of
Florida. That's where she'll make landfall.

You can see the point on her west side which is also pointing to the location of her landfall.

[jlauderdal]

Look at the elliptical shape of Jeanne. Draw a line through the center of the major axis of her elliptical shape and continue the line to the coast of
Florida. That's where she'll make landfall.

You can see the point on her west side which is also pointing to the location of her landfall.

very good..see folks, you can look at many other tools other than just model runs which flip and flop and drive you crazy.