Tom Terry's Noon Forecast

[SeaBrz_FL]

Cat 3 landfall near Vero; Cat 1 in Orlando area
He's putting more confidence in the EURO models and NOGAP than the AMER models at this point.

[Josephine96]

I like Terry.. A Vero Beach landfall would probably mean I'd get some rough winds here in Osceola.. {90-100 mph maybe?}

[TampaFl]

[Josephine96]

Tampa doesn't like the sound of that

[tronbunny]

Alright, he was a bit overstated for Frances, so I'd expect the same today.
this is definitely a head scratcher.
At least it should only take an hour or so to put up our plywood.
I'll wait until tomorrow AM.

[Josephine96]

Good idea Tron..

[Guest]

I dont think that any local on air met should be in the busuness ofr pinpointing exact locations for landfall especially after the kind of season its been...It could wobble north it could wobble south it could turn before hitting the coast all together.

Down here are some of the best mets in the business,Bryan Norcross,Bill Kamal,Roland Steadham...Like em or hate em they do a good to great job explaining the different scenarios that may or may not occur but you will never see any of them saying 2 days out where a landfall will happen.

[Josephine96]

Well Tom Terry was also praised because he called the Charley NE quick turn 2nd.. {Because truthfully I think Jim Van Fleet called it 1st lol}

[chadtm80]

I know terry, and count on him day in and day out.. and im SURE he didnt pin point.. He prob stated where he is leaning for landfall, and he ALWAYS gives the official landfall prediction as well.. And Tron.. Who wasnt overstated for Francis?

[Josephine96]

LOL Chad

By the way Chad.. I like Tom too.. 1 of my favs is Jim Van Fleet on Fox though.. I just wish he was the chief.. Glenn Richards is ok though

[oviedofan]

Good idea Tron..

north of you and hoping that Jeanne pulls a Frances and winds around 50-60 miles...

[SeaBrz_FL]

I am almost positive that, by now, all Floridians are well aware that a hurricane is NOT a point. For those of us on the coast, landfall point predictions are CRITICAL.

Btw, Terry called a Stuart landfall for Frances 4 days before it hit ... when the TPC was still calling Melbourne. While most everyone up my way on the coast was prepared for a direct hit, that 100 mile landfall south of us made a huge difference between very bad damage and catastrophic like Ft Pierce/Stuart got.

[chadtm80]

as well he called Charlie to a T.. Long before anyone else did.. Its just a shame no one in that listening area could see him

[Josephine96]

A landfall in Vero would make things worse here in Osceola.. especially if she comes into Osceola County.. We have a fragile power grid and definitely a lot of damage still from Charley..

[indwind]

Simple as that.

[Josephine96]

Simple as what..?

[tronbunny]

as well he called Charlie to a T.. Long before anyone else did.. Its just a shame no one in that listening area could see him

Agreed...
just that I'm seeing the weakening possibility, and if so, then Western Osceola/Orange won't see quite cat1 winds.
Tom had us with 80-90mph for Frances, even at landfall.
So, because I see a lot of similarities between the effects of the 2 storms, especially if Jeanne stays coastward, I don't see cat1 winds in the western viewing area (as Tom has suggested).
But...oh and this is a big one... if Jeanne doesn't get that shear, if it wobbles W,SW we're looking at his numbers.
So, no dissing Tom..just gambling/speculation with this very moment's data.
So my musings could go out the window in minutes!
edit- see, just what he's saying now..as a matter of fact, I'm leaning more toward Derek Orrts forecast which is "worse" for our locale.

[otowntiger]

I dont think that any local on air met should be in the busuness ofr pinpointing exact locations for landfall especially after the kind of season its been...It could wobble north it could wobble south it could turn before hitting the coast all together.

Down here are some of the best mets in the business,Bryan Norcross,Bill Kamal,Roland Steadham...Like em or hate em they do a good to great job explaining the different scenarios that may or may not occur but you will never see any of them saying 2 days out where a landfall will happen.

Yeah, Yeah, all the mets down in Miami are better than these small town, know nothing little guys up here. Seriously I have great respect for Terry, he is informative, not afraid to tell us what he is thinking and seems to really know his stuff. Around here he is becoming something of a legend. But aside from all that, I'm sure HE did not pinpoint landfall, he usually tells us very clearly and thoroughly what will happen weather wise, county by county and hour by hour based on the NHC official tracks. Yes he is inclined to ocasionally go against the NHC when he has facts to back him up, but generally he does not make irresponsible prognistications.

[Mation]

He ALWAYS prefaces his statements by saying this is what SOME of the models are showing and he feels better about some than others. I don't ever recall him saying this is what is going to happen without a shadow of a doubt. The guy has been doing an awesome job with these storms...

[Guest]

Not even The NHC says 2 days in advance what specific city will be hit!