Morning Jeanne forecast... yet farther left

[Rainband]

too close for me

[oviedofan]

forecast graphics are also now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

I for one am sick of giving hurricane briefings, but looks like yet another one is in store for us

As a first "day" poster, I have been reading your posts in the last few weeks with great interest and thank you for all your hard work...

[robbielyn]

tampa bay say east hillsborough county then curving north through the center of the state.

[oviedofan]

tampa bay say east hillsborough county then curving north through the center of the state.

Wondering if the 11 AM forecast is going to come closer to Derek's partner's forecast.

[Guest]

History says no but the NHC and Joe B says it will make landfall here. I really think your right Ort but I am making preparations for a 3 Good luck

[rocknole]

IMO you have a screw loose if you don't greatly respect Ortt and Cangialosi's forecasts. They had Frances pretty well pegged while the NHC had her making landfall in Jacksonville. What happened? The NHC kept coming south and ended up pretty stinking close to the NWHHC forecast. The same thing happened with Ivan, and it looks like the same thing is happening with Jeanne.

[FlSteel]

Well your track Derek has both positives and negatives for us here in Jax. We don't take the eye as is projected by the NHC yet we stay on the Northeast side for an awful long time. I see alot more trees down and lack of power for a while here in Northeast Fl.

[TampaFl]

Great post and and observation of the WV Loop Sanibel. I was saying the same to a co-worker this morning . Thanks for you post and keep us updated.

Robert

[tronbunny]

Somewhere between 55-70kt in Osceola, looks like.
NE quad, again.
Hmmm, still with the plywood question.

[TampaFl]

Good luck tronbunny

[tronbunny]

hey, with Plylox clips, it'll only take us an hour or so to get everything back up, so I can still wait until tomorrow AM to decide.
:-D

[jpigott]

Derek - what are your thoughts at intensity at landfall (90-100mph) (100-110mph) (110-120mph) (120+mph)

[Brent]

Derek - what are your thoughts at intensity at landfall (90-100mph) (100-110mph) (110-120mph) (120+mph)

120 mph just offshore is in his forecast.

[CourierPR]

With regard to forward speed, I think the NHC said 9 mph at 11 AM with an increase expected. Does this not reflect the strength of the high pressure influencing Jeanne?

[jpigott]

after reading this thread and the new one regarding the models trending back N and E, somebody seems to be off. Maybe the new model runs had not picked up the the increased forward speed, which i also thought was a sign of a strong/strengthening ridge.

[Derek Ortt]

the canadian is now in the gom.

a west track is almost a certainty with the ridge continuing to build in

[Guest]

Little bit of polarization gets the blood flowing.

[jlauderdal]

the canadian is now in the gom.

a west track is almost a certainty with the ridge continuing to build in

the big question will be when does NHC come clean about this. Do they do it t 5 when the have to issue hurricane warnings for some of the penninsula or do they wait. They have to be seeing what the rest of us are in regards to this ridge..the gfs and gfdl can do what they want but jeanne isnt busting that ridge just like frances didnt regardless that the gfs had it into SC/NC. That the question everyone...what does nhc do with their landfall point. Do they bring it as far south as Fort Laud..go conservative and go Plam Beach or leave it alone..we are running out fo hours now.

[seahawkjd]

Here we go again with the conspiracy about the NHC being incompitent and trying to cover up their mistakes at the cost of lives......... Its becoming a prerequisite for every storm I think lol.

[Bellarose]

the canadian is now in the gom.

a west track is almost a certainty with the ridge continuing to build in

Derek, I think your forecasts are great and pretty dead on, from what I can tell. Just curious as to why you still see this going inland, and not up the coast, like the models are starting to show more and more? Are they not taking things into consideration (speed, ridges, etc.?). Do you expect the NHC track to change anytime soon?

Bella