Jeanne Forecast #11: Central Fla bracing for a beating

[Josephine96]

LOL True..

[rocknole]

I think you should place a little more trust in the NOGAPS and bring your landfall projections farther south.

Why?

For some reason the NHC seems to want to stick closely with the GFS and GFDL models, which seem to have underestimated the strength of these ridges so far this season. The NOGAPS seems to be doing a better job with that this season.

It is just my opinion, but this seems so similar to Frances when the NHC had it coming in at Jacksonville, then Daytona Beach, then Cape Canaveral, then Melbourne and finally Fort Pierce. The 11:00 AM track shifted slightly to the south and west and I expect to see it do so further later today.

THe NOGAPS has been excellent on jumping on the WESTWARD TRENDS ... but the end game result ends up being slightly east ... NOGAPS did so with Frances and Ivan ... (NOGAPS was the first to jump on the shift westward, but ENDED UP being TOO FAR WEST) ... Ivan, NOGAPS depicted a N'Orleans hit, when in actually, it was about 100 miles east ...

The NOGAPS has a leftward bias with TC's due to the progressiveness of the model ...

(That's from Stormsfury.. a pro met, NOT ME.)

I disagree... but we will see what happens Rocknole...

Thanks for the feedback, yoda. Good information and I am preparing for landfall near here, but I won't be surprised if it is somewhere between West Palm and Vero Beach.

[Josephine96]

Just want to again reiterate that I will try to find a comp to write an outlook tomorrow.. but the odds of me writing 1 early Sunday are next to zero

[Deana Cuevas]

I've seen a few models that have it coming over Tampa. Does any one have any comments on that?

[Josephine96]

I think it'd have to cross the peninsula 1st before going to Tampa

[Deana Cuevas]

Thanks. I think Tampa will get T/S force winds not hurricane. I'm a little confused as well. I'm new at this but correct if I'm wrong please. I'm seeing the High pressure building to the north of Jeanne however it looks like it is also coming from the West as well. How does that work? Does this mean Jeanne will try to push her way to the West underneath (or around) the high pressure. And can someone please tell me about the trough that she is suppose to take to the north east. Or maybe I have it all wrong. Thanks in advance.

[cswitwer]

Here's hoping you're wrong, John.

I like reading your forecasts now every day, along with Derek's and anything MWatkins posts. You're no longer a newbie.

[Josephine96]

LOL.. Glad to hear it CSW..

[Josephine96]

I have to add that I apologize for putting all those wind threads up..

If I was going to attempt to make a forecast regarding winds.. I should have done it.. and not asked people 1st what I thought they'd be.. That was irresponsible..

Plus it was irresponsible for me to do something like that anyhow..

My apologies to you all.. and I hope you still enjoy reading my outlooks..