2 PM advisory Jeanne=Moving faster west 12 mph

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

2 PM advisory Jeanne=Moving faster west 12 mph

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:43 pm

Code: Select all

241739 ***
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  44A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
 
...JEANNE MOVING WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.  A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
FLORIDA CITY TO ST. AUGUSTINE.  THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.
 
WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY.  SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
 
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.9 WEST OR ABOUT  255
MILES... 415 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
 
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR  12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER
OF JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
JEANNE.
 
TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...26.3 N... 72.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#2 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:44 pm

12 mph? It was 9 at the 11... :eek: :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:46 pm

That faster foward speed means that the landfall will be earlier than thought earlier and preparations should be completed sooner as time will be more short.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Josephine96

#4 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:46 pm

Did I read that paragraph about Yom Kippur right..? Since when did the NHC get religious on us lol
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#5 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:46 pm

Uh oh. The faster she goes, she farther she goes -- across Florida, that is. The Fla. west coast also needs to pay attention.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:47 pm

You got it right dixie.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Josephine96

#7 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:48 pm

I may issue another outlook on Jeanne before the day is out.. The campus closes at 5.. but they may cover up the comps. to protect them from water in case the roof leaks or something..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurricaneQueen
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1011
Age: 80
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:36 pm
Location: No. Naples, Fl (Vanderbilt Beach area)

#8 Postby HurricaneQueen » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:48 pm

We're watching, Dixie, as I know you are too. Thanks,
Lynn
0 likes   
GO FLORIDA GATORS
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

#9 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:49 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Did I read that paragraph about Yom Kippur right..? Since when did the NHC get religious on us lol


its a big deal down here in sofla since we have such a large jewish popultion adn of course we are in the strike zone. rabbis have been on tv saying your life always takes president over any of the jewish doctirine so having a radio on is ok if its a matter of safety.
0 likes   
Top
jes
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 310
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:41 am
Location: Mobile

#10 Postby jes » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:49 pm

Earlier today someone posted that her forward speed will have a great deal to do with were she makes landfall. I thought they said that if she travels faster than 10mph she will miss something (high, low, trough, ridge or something) and have a greater chance of moving into the gulf. Am I interpreting what they said correctly?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#11 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:50 pm

Hey Lynn, I may write a book about this season! Stay safe in SOFLA.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#12 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:50 pm

it also could mean it could go farther inland.
0 likes   
Top
Josephine96

#13 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:50 pm

Oh Ok.. Thank you J
0 likes   
Top
Andy_L
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 257
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:03 am
Location: Ottawa, Canada

#14 Postby Andy_L » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:50 pm

The NHC had mentioned the increase in forward speed earlier...surely that would have been taken into account in the track listed at that time would it not?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cswitwer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 356
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 1:22 pm
Location: Seattle, WA

#15 Postby cswitwer » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:52 pm

"WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION. "

How thoughtful and appropriate. I'm impressed. I'd have to say that they are fulfilling the role of public steward.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5937
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

#16 Postby MGC » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:52 pm

Very large Jewish population in south Fla......MGC
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:53 pm

I expect that the hurricane warnings will be issued at 11 pm tonight or if it moves more faster than 12 mph at 5 pm.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Josephine96

#18 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:54 pm

NHC had all the bases covered
0 likes   
Top
jpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 692
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:31 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

#19 Postby jpigott » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:54 pm

my thinking is that if forward speed has picked up and the ridge continues to remain strong at 5 NHC should move path S and W b/c faster likely = further W before turn North, and the way the ridge is pushing down on Jeanne makes me think no northernly component for a while
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#20 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:55 pm

cswitwer wrote:"WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION. "

How thoughtful and appropriate. I'm impressed. I'd have to say that they are fulfilling the role of public steward.


They had the same statement when Hurricane Opal was approaching the Panhandle in 1995.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Team Ghost and 248 guests