1800Z Model

[darinflorida]

The UKMET and GFDL new model runs just came out.

UKMET shifted north and east

GFDL shifted east by a faily large margin in my opionion

[djti]

if gfdl shifted east....no landfall?

[gkrangers]

The models are weakening or moving the ridge east...how does this compute synoptically?

[darinflorida]

Let me get the link for you and yes is shows NO land fall now

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif

Let me correct that. It shows no FLORIDA land fall

[djti]

wow...thats way east....florida wouldnt get much of anything......

[lwg8tr]

Let me get the link for you and yes is shows NO land fall now

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif

Let me correct that. It shows no FLORIDA land fall

The models look like garbage, they all have a WNW movement NOW! Does anybody see that? I think this is why I heard Max Mayfield say that models are only a component of forecasting not what the NHC hangs it's proverbial hat on. I would like to think they are true, but like with Frances it looks like some bad data is injected in those tracks.

[Rainband]

That would be awesome news!!!! But looking at the WV????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html The ridge seems in place and strong??

[darinflorida]

According the latest GFDL run, Jeanne would have to start her turn at 75W and I just don't see that happening

[Rainband]

where these models run with data before the speed up?? Maybe that why

[seahawkjd]

Well if you watch the actual circulation center, hard to do, its still moving north of due west so wnw is as much of a possibility as anything.

[lwg8tr]

According the latest GFDL run, Jeanne would have to start her turn at 75W and I just don't see that happening

I think we have our first benchmark. If she is'nt north of let's say 26.5 by 75 degrees longtiude then I will believe what the HAL 9000s have to say..."Do you hear me Dave?"

[Suncat]

It is starting to look more like a direct hit to eastern NC.

[gkrangers]

It is starting to look more like a direct hit to eastern NC.

Don't get your hopes up. A second landfall over the outer banks is possible if Jeanne recurves soon enuf tho.

[seahawkjd]

Hopes?

[lwg8tr]

where these models run with data before the speed up?? Maybe that why

Our local met here Steve Weagal said the models did have Jeanne with a projected speed of 10mph at this point. Wonder what this acceleration will do to the forecast path? Man I would hate to work at the NHC, you've got all the computers telling you North, North North and the synoptics and common sense say South, South, South.

[jpigott]

history folks, i'd be wary hanging on these models right now, they have been turning systems north too early all season long

[CL]

That ridge seems to be extending even further west across FL..I just cant see it come off a due west track until almost the FL west coast...

[seahawkjd]

All I can say is I have a much better appreciation for the NHC after this season. I used to barely even watch their forcasts, but this year I think they've really raised the bar.

[ColdFront77]

The majority of the models still show a Florida landfall.

Most of the forecast models for Frances weren't toward the north.

[tronbunny]

history folks, i'd be wary hanging on these models right now, they have been turning systems north too early all season long

That's what I've seen.
Wonder why no one's put that bias in the models yet?