the models dont make any sense

[Derek Ortt]

1. the GFS is TOO FRIGGEN WEAK with the ridge, again. The result: a pile of dung, as are the models using its fields

2. The models are too slow now. It is speeding up.

3. the high continues to build west.

This is a s Fla storm, no way around it it appears. And this is not just my opinion, but that of many

[ColdWaterConch]

Tx, Derek. As an amateur, I was wondering what I was missing here...but why are are models so off?

[Blown Away]

Maybe their will be a recon flight this evening that
will verify a much stronger high, just like they did
w/ Frances. All those models seem to be trending
N & E w/ every run.

[tronbunny]

Tx, Derek. As an amateur, I was wondering what I was missing here...but why are are models so off?

Ding Ding Ding..!!!
the 64 million dollar question of the year!

[alicia-w]

isnt there an expression:

garbage in, garbage out

the models can only be as good as the data put into them

[gkrangers]

Derek answered that question in his post.

The ridge north of Jeanne is very strong, but the models don't think its as strong as it really is. So the models think an earlier turn is possible. When in reality, it'll probably take the north turn later unless the ridge weakens or moves east.

The ridge is a barrier and Jeanne is just riding around it..

[djti]

so it seems the board brainpower (do and mw) like the nogaps west solution?

thats a consensus!!

[Canelaw99]

Derek - it's somewhat disconcerting to me to hear you say that. I know you're not one to throw that kind of forecast around lightly. Just an opinion - are you thinking Ft. Lauderdale S. FL, or Miami S.FL????

[Brent]

I'm having severe flashbacks to Andrew. Didn't it move faster than expected and landfall earlier?

[FloridaDiver]

1. the GFS is TOO FRIGGEN WEAK with the ridge, again. The result: a pile of dung, as are the models using its fields

2. The models are too slow now. It is speeding up.

3. the high continues to build west.

This is a s Fla storm, no way around it it appears. And this is not just my opinion, but that of many

I’m just a big time amateur forecaster, took some met classes in collage and play with this on the side as a hobby during the season. I don’t post any of my stuff but I like to compare what I come up with versus those who post here. I just wanted to say I enjoy reading your forecasts, they are informative and show much thought and preparation. It’s great to see you stick to your reasoning and not fall into the “trend is your friend” stuff with the models, especially when the models have such a poor reading of the synoptic patterns around this system. I agree with you, the models are a pile of dung! (Great use of words without offending anyone!) Latest recon shows the speed increase, the ridge is not going anywhere, and to think she is going to make such a wide turn with all this around her is nuts!

Keep up the great work Derek!

[jpigott]

just read a post on the Wright Weather Bulliten Board from a guy named RalieghWX (and maybe his name suggests his bias for a N turn - can anybody say -removed-) he seem to think that the ridge is presently (not in the future, but presently) shifting back east. Now maybe i'm just smoking something, but if sure don't look like the ridge is shifting east.

[WeatherEmperor]

I feel your frustration Derek, but fear none. The NOAA G-IV jet will be going out this afternoon and that data will be put into the 00Z models so that we can see that info at 06Z.

<RICKY>

[wabbitoid]

I'm having severe flashbacks to Andrew. Didn't it move faster than expected and landfall earlier?

This is what I keep wondering. One of the models still has this cutting across Florida and entering the Gulf in a position to cause more trouble. That's very different than the other models show, and it looks like a distinct possibility if Jeanne moves fast and the ridge holds.

Does that make sense? (go ahead, blast me, I'm OK. )

Is this year really that much more variable than past years? And, if so, is it because there's more junk in the atmosphere than usual yanking the models around?

[jabber]

Derek,

I mean this as no offense but would not the NHC , if what you say is accurate, say 'to the hell with the models' we think the storm is going this way. I am thinking this is what they had to do before the models were even available. Again I am not say what you are saying is wrong.

[wankelman]

Derek-

Long time lurker here, and I agree with your forecast. The models have continually missed the strength of the HP's all season and thus missing the western component of the storms movements.

WWW

[Blown Away]

Ok DO, the models are initializing the ridge to weak! Has recon
checked the ridge to verify?? I would think they would want
to cover the possibility since they underestimated the ridge
during Frances, thus resulting in a major S & W track change.
To much info supporting a N & E movement.

[catzmeow]

are you suggesting that the NOGAPS model may be correct, and Jeanne may hit the panhandle as a tropical storm early next week?

[Wnghs2007]

Ok DO, the models are initializing the ridge to weak! Has recon
checked the ridge to verify?? I would think they would want
to cover the possibility since they underestimated the ridge
during Frances, thus resulting in a major S & W track change.
To much info supporting a N & E movement.

Well the G-IV plane is going out there tonight to check it out and its data should be intigrated into 06Z Models. And right now the ridge is at a highth over the storm of C. 700 MB 2804 M dont know what that means but seems pretty storng.

[dhweather]

It's all work of the devil!

[x-y-no]

Remember that in yesterday's 5pm discussion, Stewart said "The forecast track was nudged slightly south and west based on the GFDL...GFS...and UKMET models having initialized the ridge too weak by about 20 meters at 500mb." Now I have noticed by comparisons of past runs with later initializations that the GFS is once again weakening the ridge too fast. So if it's initializing too weak as well ,that would put it way off.