New Recon....

[Windspeed]

991
URNT12 KNHC 241757
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/1757Z
B. 26 DEG 23 MIN N
73 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2804 M
D. 50 KT
E. 201 DEG 13 NM
F. 290 DEG 72 KT
G. 203 DEG 028 NM
H. 968 MB
I. 10 C/ 3043 M
J. 15 C/ 3027 M
K. 11 C/ NA AW
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO25-60
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF861 1711A JEANNE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 72 KT S QUAD 1749Z. INNER EYEWALL OPEN S AND
RAGGED N-W. PEAK WIND IN OUTER EYEWALL.


Looks like we now have a large diameter eye folks. Winds have came down, as to be expected with the inner core collapsing over the morning hours. IMO, this is bad timing, because as this system is beginning to move over 28ºC waters, we are starting out with a large diameter eye that will contract. When pressures start to fall, the wind gradient will tighten and a Catagory 3 at landfall is still a very good possibility. Note the pressure...it's still 968mb. That is significant in the long run, unfortunately.

[seahawkjd]

what quadrant is this? Surely the top winds at flight level haven't come down to around 90 have they?

[gkrangers]

Looks like Jeanne may be in an ERC.

[Josephine96]

I did say I thought the hurricane would be a Cat 3 by landfall.. and I still think it could be..

This is 1 crazy storm

[alicia-w]

90? I thought 72kts was 82/83mph.

It says the south quadrant.

Folks have been talking about eyewall regeneration, so it could be a part of that process.

[WXBUFFJIM]

I still bet that as the eye contracts a bit and the tops surrounding the eye cool further, we got a possibly major hurricane to deal with. But whether this a category 2 or a category 3, it's still dangerous to venture out in that stuff.

Jim

[otowntiger]

what quadrant is this? Surely the top winds at flight level haven't come down to around 90 have they?

Just take a look at her. She does not look that good. I'd be surprised if she had that much wind.

[seahawkjd]

No with the pressure still so low theres no way. Remember flight lvl winds of that would mean an 80 mph storm so higher pressure. She's getting her act together now too. Anyway, someone answered my question this was from the southern part of the system, so we'll have to wait and see what the NE vortex looks like.

[djti]

but right now we have a cat 1 storm.....it may strengthen.....but definitely just cat 1 around 80mph right now.....5pm advisory will probably only go down to 90 though to play it safe.

[MWatkins]

looks to me that the inner eye has been spinning around inside the outer wall for sometime. I expect:

1. The inner wall to decay.

2. The outer wall to become dominant tonight...leading to intensification.

MW

[gkrangers]

Its not a category 1 hurricane.

[djti]

well its certainly not a 2....and even though recon has found only borderline hurricane force winds 969 is a little low for a tropical storm........so whats left?

1 it is.

[Brent]

968 mb pressure fully supports a solid Cat 2.

[gkrangers]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Doesn't look that bad to me...people severely underate these things sometimes just cuz they aren't the beautiful, perfectly symetric storms with the tight eye and perfect CDO.

Remember when Ivan exploded in the Atlantic, but then got "disorganized" and people were calling it a Cat 1?

Just my opinion...can't sample every square inch for winds. It has to be stronger than the latest recon.

[seahawkjd]

Again, that recon was the southern portion of the storm (read weaker part). Wait till the NE quadrant is sampled. Remember folks its a big storm, they do several and its not uniform in every part.

[djti]

nhc has all but said during the last 2 discussions that jeanne is a cat 1....

"this 100mph advisory is a little generous" or lines to that regard........

[Brent]

nhc has all but said during the last 2 discussions that jeanne is a cat 1....

"this 100mph advisory is a little generous" or lines to that regard........

No.

They said this MAY be a LITTLE generous. The winds will respond if they haven't already.

[KWT]

Djti Jeanne is a category-2,just because reacon haven't found categroy-2 winds yet that's no reason to suggest that it won't.

[djti]

cheerleaders unite!!

if it walks like a cat 1 and talks like a cat 1......its a cat 2 on its way to cat 5 then miami then neworleans

[djti]

there is no evidence that jeanne is a cat 2 kwt......and the nhc has made reference to such....

borderline at best......definitely not a no-brainer.