Morning Jeanne forecast... yet farther left

[jpigott]

so Derek how do you think NHC handles this problem? models saying more N and E (but given their track record. . .) but common sense, synoptics, etc say due W? Do they play the middle? My reason for concern is if Jeanne stays the course you will have 1)earlier landfall 2)Ft. Lauderdale/WPB in the middle of potentially a major hurricane 3) even Mia would get in the mix. We are talking about 3 heavily populated areas

[Derek Ortt]

the models have the ridge too weak. We are fairly convinced here that this cannot turn before florida.

I'm not doing the 5 p.m. forecast... but dont expect any northward shift

[jlauderdal]

Here we go again with the conspiracy about the NHC being incompitent and trying to cover up their mistakes at the cost of lives......... Its becoming a prerequisite for every storm I think lol.

i dont think anyone is implying a conspiracy. it will be interesting to see how they handle the track...its a huge deal if they bring it into south florida.

[Bellarose]

How far in do you see this going before it turns? Any idea? I'm at the point where I am not even bothering to prepare for this storm, but your last track takes it over Tampa, so I'm just trying to keep up with everything!

Bella

[jpigott]

A negative side effect from the copious amount of storms FL has had this year (and access to the internet) is that suddenly everyone is aware of THE MODELS. Got people in my office here in WPB practically bouncing off walls, estatic that models are trending away from us, and reasonably so, its been a long summer. I am trying to convey to them that 1) storm is still far enough away to see a shift back south 2) models aren't always right. I just hope and pray everyone stays vigilant, b/c i too see a very likely landfall in SE FL

[CourierPR]

Met, Dean Tendrich, at WPTV W Palm Beach is telling folks to evacuate to Miami=Dade Co. Maybe not a great idea at this point.

[ColdFront77]

What does it mean for Central Florida, specially Orlando if anyone would be so kind

Cangialosi's forecast puts the center of Jeanne southwest and west of Orlando, which puts the metropolitan Orlando area in the stronger northeast quadrant
(not to say the western side of a hurricane is "weak").

that same page also says that cangialosi has both a met and applied math degree. he is a grad student who is expected to have his masters in met in december

Derek, are you more involved in hurricane research than Cangialosi -- that he is more involved in hurricane forecasting?

Am I missing something? He has it turning north in the center of the State.

The forecast path here... http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html is more through the north-central portion of central Florida beings that it it positioned just
east of Tampa before the more northward movement.

[Derek Ortt]

nah,

we;re both involved in research.

I am very upset with Jeanne. I was trying to finish a favorability index (whihc is showing some promise), but have been sidetracked yet again by Jeanne

[ColdFront77]

Okay, I thought so... but, at the same time had a feeling he was "more a forecaster."

Thank you very much, Derek.