Track changes coming?q

[jlauderdal]

Miami NWS is right down the corridor from NHC. Sounds like Miami smells a track change which would be consistent with what some of us have been saying since this morning.


SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
234 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...OBVIOUSLY THIS FORECAST IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE
TRACK OF HURRICANE JEANNE. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY (AS OF 11 AM) SHOWS
LANDFALL BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND PALM BEACH. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH
THE WORSE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...MIAHLSMFL...FOR THE
LATEST EXPECTED IMPACT ACROSS SOUTH FL. THESE STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED
WHENEVER NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERE IS A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. SINCE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TOMORROW...WE OPTED TO WAIT
AND SEE IF THE FORECAST TRACK STILL HOLDS BEFORE GOING AHEAD WITH THIS

[seahawkjd]

I don't see any change here in what they have been saying? A hit is a hit whether it barrels through or grazes.

[Josephine96]

Doesn't sound like a potential track change to me either

[Blown Away]

This statement was before the latest model runs
that show more N & E movement. Do you think they will
go against all that info? Also, the latest satellite shows
a little N component. The models showed that to!

[JTD]

This statement was before the latest model runs
that show more N & E movement. Do you think they will
go against all that info? Also, the latest satellite shows
a little N component. The models showed that to!

OK...Don't shoot me. I cannot load satelite loops but are you saying Ivan is now moving NW? I'm on dial-up

Also, other people confirming NW too?

[seahawkjd]

Nah, its just moving barely north of due west. But everyone's a little confused anyway because the ERC is making it causing a lot of optical illusions. The best I've done is to watch the line the weather channel's radar draws and hope they are better at it then I am.

[KeyLargoDave]

Jason, -- Jeanne is not moving NW, but there's talk of model tracks shifting north/east. And of course, the current track forecasts a NW turn, probably within 24 hours.

HTH

[Blown Away]

I should have been more specific, I meant to say it is moving
west with a little N component.

[hiflyer]

rappaport at NHC just advised some warnings will fly at 1700 but says they have not finished looking at models and have not made their perlim run yet.

storm has been climbing north albeit just a little at a time...26.1n at 1100 and 26.2 at 1400 with the wobbles factored out..

models have been moving north
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif

[Josephine96]

so some watches could become warnings at the 5pm advisory..?

[JTD]

OK. Got ya. North of due west. OK. So about 285? or 280 on the compass?

[jlauderdal]

Doesn't sound like a potential track change to me either

There is going to be track change i think.

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=47427

[gkrangers]

No, its moving about 272.

Its due west, with MAYBE a 275 here or there. Should stay between due west and slightly north of due west.

Slightly north of due west makes it a whole different ballgame for those in S FL.

[LakeToho]

I dont see it.. You can tell this thing isnt ready to head WNW right now, look at it's shape. Think the GFS and the models initialized from it, are having difficulties with strength of the ridge, the speed of the storm, and the high that is still build towards the west. You can almost see where this is going by looking at the Water Vapor.

[gulfcoaster53]

I dont see it.. You can tell this thing isnt ready to head WNW right now, look at it's shape. Think the GFS and the models initialized from it, are having difficulties with strength of the ridge, the speed of the storm, and the high that is still build towards the west. You can almost see where this is going by looking at the Water Vapor.

I agree. I may be ignorant, but I just can't see where the north or ever wnw movement is going to come from. The ridge is still building to the SW. Unless that changes, she's not going to make landfall any further north lat than she is already.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[ColdFront77]

The ridge building in from the northeast... toward the southwest can easily cause Jeanne to move more northwesterly.

[jpigott]

someone from another message board said the ridge is starting to shift on its axis to a more N-S orientation which would allow a more northerly turn. Is this happening; to my amatuer eyes it does not seem to be the case

[Josephine96]

So Tom.. if the storm moves NW or even WNW then perhaps the track will be shifted a tad bit north again..

I stated I thought it'd make landfall in Brevard County.. what do you guys think..

[NFLnut]

If you look at the GOES floater and drop in the forecast points, it APPEARS that J is just a little north of the forecast track. Granted, it COULD just be from a wobble, but it IS slightly north of the forecast, FWIW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[ColdFront77]

The ridge may appear to be starting to shift on its axis to a more N/S orientation or be on the verge of doing so, thus this appearance.
We shall see how soon it actually occurs.

I think the NW or even WNW movement is taken into account... it's the forecast models understanding of the ridge that is the concern.