New Recon....

[gkrangers]

cheerleaders unite!!

if it walks like a cat 1 and talks like a cat 1......its a cat 2 on its way to cat 5 then miami then neworleans

Its not walking or acting like a Cat 1.

The pressure is low and its organized and going through an ERC.

Give it up.

[seahawkjd]

lol, we're just saying that you have no factual basis except what your eyes are seeing to say that its that weak. If it had gone to a cat 1 storm I would expect the pressure to have risen a good 20 mb. As it is its just doing an ERC.

[caneman]

Am I the only one seeing this or has anyone else noticed that its moisture feed is just about cut off. It is looking annular to me. Hope not with a giant eyewall coming on shore.

[djti]

when was the last recon that measured cat 2 winds?

has there been one?

again...the nhc has said in their last 2 discussions that there 100mph may be generous......recon just erased the "may" part in my mind.

[KWT]

as someone said before it's gonig thourgh a EWR,hurricanes do tend to weaken abit,but that doesn't mean they will downgrade it though,well thats what I think anyway.

[gkrangers]

as someone said before it's gonig thourgh a EWR,hurricanes do tend to weaken abit,but that doesn't mean they will downgrade it though,well thats what I think anyway.

Theres a reason they don't change the intensity by a full category every update.

Even IF Jeanne is a 1, it won't be for long at all. The pressure just doesn't support that at all.

[djti]

this weakening was a little more than an erc.....dry air was wrapped in and destroyed the inner core....


this is a complete reorg in process.....not just an erc.....and frances was never able to complete this when it happened to her.

[Brent]

If it walks and talks like a troll, it must be a troll.

[tallywx]

weak...

Here's the supplemental VORTEX which includes obs from the NE quad:

URNT14 KNHC 241828
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01250 10741 13082 10908 31051
02251 20740 23066 20908 30046
03253 30738 33051 31009 30040
04255 40736 43030 41009 30047
05257 50734 53992 51010 29059
06259 60733 63937 61110 29071
07262 70732 73866 71311 28045
MF260 M0733 MF072
OBS 01 AT 1729Z
OBS 07 AT 1753Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 30035
01266 10729 13849 11312 13045
02267 20727 23906 21212 13058
03269 30725 33979 31010 14081
04271 40723 43027 41010 13061
05273 50721 53061 51010 13061
06274 60719 63078 61008 13058
07276 70717 73086 71008 13060
MF268 M0726 MF083
OBS 01 AT 1801Z
OBS 07 AT 1826Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 11045
RMK AF861 1711A JEANNE OB 11

Folks, that's 83 knots in the NE quad. Being generous and using 90% reduction from flight level (which only should be used for storms w/ heavy convection, which Jeanne currently does not have), yields 75 knots. 85% yields 70 knots. So the storm is an 80-85 mph storm, 85 mph AT BEST right now.

Regarding the pressure argument...remember, Frances had a pressure of 975 mb when she was a 65-mph tropical storm. It's all about the organization of the inner core, and currently Jeanne's is loose. That could all change, though.

[ColdWaterConch]

Ed Rappaport just confirmed that the HHs have confirmed 100mph winds at the surface.

[tallywx]

Egg on my face. Recon. found 94 kts in the NW quad. Cat 2, 100 mph at surface using 90% reduction.