The models seem to be trending...

[Blown Away]

The models seem to be trending more and more to
the N and E with every run, especially the GFDL and GFS. The skirting up the coast just offshore seems more possible with
each run.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[gkrangers]

We'll see..yesterday they trended west all day, and today theyve moved east all day.

The models are difficult to use because of their issues with forecasting the ridge.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

another site:

[Josephine96]

Still have a bunch that take Jeanne inland before she exits

[jpigott]

someones out to lunch here. Models seem to be trending N and E, but many here on this board (like Derek Ortt and his crew) seem pretty confident about landfall bwtn Ft. Lauderdale and WPB. Confused, i thought the closer these monsters get to land the more clumped the models/forecasts get

[rdcrds]

what would this place be without that post from that person LOL never a dull forcast LOL

[NFLnut]

Go ahead .. make my day!

North and East off the coast sounds good to me! For now, in the eye am I (that was for you, Yoda!)

[jlauderdal]

The models seem to be trending more and more to
the N and E with every run, especially the GFDL and GFS. The skirting up the coast just offshore seems more possible with
each run.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

remember gfdl is run off of gfs so typically when gfs moves so will gfdl...gfs has been horrible this year so dont get to excited about its modeling..you are better off looking at the NHC track and ortt and blending them together

[Blown Away]

The models seem to be trending more and more to
the N and E with every run, especially the GFDL and GFS. The skirting up the coast just offshore seems more possible with
each run.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

remember gfdl is run off of gfs so typically when gfs moves so will gfdl...gfs has been horrible this year so dont get to excited about its modeling..you are better off looking at the NHC track and ortt and blending them together

W/ the new model info, I think the 5pm NHC track will
likely show a Daytona to Jacksonville landfall. That will also
change because the liklihood of this storm landfalling
in that area is not high. NC/ Outer Banks will probably come
closer to the eye than FL. Just a hunch.

[gkrangers]

I don't think the NHC will change the forecast based on the GFS/GFDL runs.

I think it'll stay just about the same, if anything, maybe a little further inland due to the synoptics.

[Three Blind Mice]

your kidding? no way. Watch the 5pm for move east.

[Canelaw99]

You know, Mice, I disagree. I think the NHC takes more time in shifting their tracks when it's closer to landfall because there are more decisions resting on their tracks.

[seahawkjd]

Thats a given. Leave it a Florida storm until there's good reason to believe otherwise, but I am very interested in hearing what the 5pm discussion says about the models whether they believe them and see something we don't or if they're going to fall into the other camp and disregard them as having bad data.

[gulfcoaster53]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

Please explain to me how this synoptic pattern is expected to change and allow a landfall north of Daytona? It looks like the ridge to the north is still building to the west. The trough over the cent plains just doesn't appear to making any eastward progress. Am I missing something? I guess this is all forecast to change with the trough digging SE and E to pick Jeanne up, but I don't recall that the ridge was forecast to make this much progress to the west. In the GOM there aren't any SW winds east of around 85W. I'm just not seeing any evidence of a scenario differing substantially from what Derek posted this morning.

[Blown Away]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv

Please explain to me how this synoptic pattern is expected to change and allow a landfall north of Daytona? It looks like the ridge to the north is still building to the west. The trough over the cent plains just doesn't appear to making any eastward progress. Am I missing something? I guess this is all forecast to change with the trough digging SE and E to pick Jeanne up, but I don't recall that the ridge was forecast to make this much progress to the west. In the GOM there aren't any SW winds east of around 85W. I'm just not seeing any evidence of a scenario differing substantially from what Derek posted this morning.

The only model that holds on to this W track into PBC area
is the Nogaps. The rest of them are going N & E with every run.
I know you can't totally depend on the models, but come on when they all move generally in the same direction then there
is some common component that they are seeing. I think the 5pm will give us the answer, I still say the track will be E of the
11am track.

[Wnghs2007]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv

Please explain to me how this synoptic pattern is expected to change and allow a landfall north of Daytona? It looks like the ridge to the north is still building to the west. The trough over the cent plains just doesn't appear to making any eastward progress. Am I missing something? I guess this is all forecast to change with the trough digging SE and E to pick Jeanne up, but I don't recall that the ridge was forecast to make this much progress to the west. In the GOM there aren't any SW winds east of around 85W. I'm just not seeing any evidence of a scenario differing substantially from what Derek posted this morning.

The only model that holds on to this W track into PBC area
is the Nogaps. The rest of them are going N & E with every run.
I know you can't totally depend on the models, but come on when they all move generally in the same direction then there
is some common component that they are seeing. I think the 5pm will give us the answer, I still say the track will be E of the
11am track.

Duh it will especially if GFDL's LOVER the MR. AVIALA issues the forecast.

[gulfcoaster53]

Personally, I hope you're correct. I've had enough even though we've been largely spared this year. So far.