the next Med storm...tonight!!!

[KWT]

I know this has already been mentioned once,but I thought as it does possibly invole hurricane force winds it should be mentioned here,as it could bring some very high rainfall totals,as well as hurricane force winds:

Mediterranean Vortex
Added [Friday September 24 2004 : 10:12:29 AM]

Meteorologists around Europe are waiting with bated breath today. Later this evening, we could see the development of a rare phenomenon in the Mediterranean Sea.

There is a moderate chance of a Mediterranean Vortex (basically a European Hurricane) developing in the Adriatic Sea between Italy and former Yugoslavia later this evening.

The Vortex is expected to develop around 10pm this evening UK time around the area of Split. The system will then run down the west coast before pushing out into the Adriatic around the Bari area and intensifying bringing a chance of hurricane force winds and torrential rainfall

[Matthew5]

I will be watching this tropical cyclone!!!

[KWT]

yep so will I.

although this storm should not be refered to as a tropical cyclone as the SST are only 22-25C,although it should be enough to get some very decent convection,and besides it makes a change for europe to have something like this!!!

[Matthew5]

Here is the satellite I have!
http://www.eumetsat.de/

Post Satellite and Radar,Surface maps!

[KWT]

thanks Matthew5.

so you over there in the US have Jeanne,and we in Europe have this storm.

[Matthew5]

Here is another satellite http://www.met-office.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html

[KWT]

It seems to me that the mass of cloud is starting to spin abit,I wonder wether this is the start of the system??

[senorpepr]

Hmmm.... we'll see what happens. I've been following this region of the world VERY closely for the past few months, espeically the past couple of days.

This system looks really baroclinic... more like a front trying to reorganize after passing through the Alps.

I'll probably call some friends that forecast over in Europe later tonight to get more data that they have on this system.

[KWT]

just to remind you lot the last time something like this happened was in 1995,and resulted in 80Mph winds,gusting to 85.

so it can happen,although senorpepr I think it does look baroclinic as well.

[tronbunny]

Fascinating!

Thanks for the heads up.

[Matthew5]

It is forming way to far to the north...If it was going to develop into a real tropical cyclone it would form with in the Med...more to the south...???

[Benlanka]

This depression is completely extratropical since it has fronts and also has a cold core in the mid levels. False alarm.

[KWT]

there seems to be a decent amount of dry air now wrapping up in the system:

[Benlanka]

The wrapping of the dry air is caused by jetintrusion probably causing the baroclinic system to go into a short period of rapid cyclogenesis later on. Large high pressure influence substantially weakens the chances of further baroclinic development. This system isn't even close to being tropical.

[KWT]

maybe so but nonetheless it does show that this system is getting stronger.Besides I know it ain't tropical(I said that early on!!)the SSt aren't high enough anyway,although they are close...

and remember 1995,that came from a very simular event.

[Matthew5]

The southern to central Med is warm enough to support tropical cyclone development...This part of the Med is to cold for it.

[Benlanka]

The 1995 vortex had more of a resemblance to a polar low, which we see often in the wintertime here in Europe but then much northerly, than a real hurricane. I am very sceptical about any hybrid form of tropical cyclones forming above 40°N.

Nevertheless, this storm certainly isn't tropical or anything near it, so why bother looking at another ordinary extratropical system?

[KWT]

what intrests me is what happens if it gets to the mid med,where SSt are warm enough,if it can keep it's structure then it'll be intresting to see what happens.

the last time this happened we saw this:



(and yes it was a polar low,I think!)

[Matthew5]

How could it be a polar low while it is over 76 to 80 degree waters...That is what I call a hurricane in the med of the tropical kind!!!

[P.K.]

It will be interesting to see how this develops. Just 75 minutes until it is forecast to form*


*I'm not expecting it to suddenly appear at 10