Critical Forecast Point #1: Look at 8PM Position Tonight

[MWatkins]

i don't write this very often....but I agree with Derek here...the GFS is too weak with the current ridging situation yet again.

The operational GFS model from 12Z projected Jeanne to be at 26.1N 74.0 W at 8PM this evening.

The 12Z GFDL has it at 26.2 73.9W.

The 12Z UKMET has it at 26.3 74.1W

Even the 12Z NOGAPS has it at 26.5 74.1W

If the verification point at 8PM is significantly west of there (.5 degrees or more) then you can pretty much throw the guidance out. The implication is that the track is going to be faster...indicating a stronger ridge...and will throw off the timing of the turn in all of the models.

Also note the NOGAPS solution is the furthest north now but the furthest west later.

8PM is big in my opinion.

MW

[MWatkins]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409241955

And it was at 73.3 west at 3:30.

It will be near 74.5W at 8:00PM.

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409241955

And it was at 73.3 west at 3:30.

It will be near 74.5W at 8:00PM.

MW

And if this Verifies MW are we looking at a SF landfall in you opinion?

[MWatkins]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409241955

And it was at 73.3 west at 3:30.

It will be near 74.5W at 8:00PM.

MW

And if this Verifies MW are we looking at a SF landfall in you opinion?

I'm not sure about the eye plowing into downtown FTL...but I think the landfall point will be south of the guidance.

Last night my coordinates were somewhere between 25.5 and 27.5W. Now that we are closer...I can narrow that down to between 26.5N and 27.5N...or between Delray Beach and Martin county.

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow..Thanks MW...Not good news for PBC..If it Verifies...

[hiflyer]

http://www.geocode.com/modules.php?name=TestDrive_Eagle

Found out I am at 26.1 north....works quite well if you want to find out for yourself since coords could be quite important if you live in the cone this time....

[hiflyer]

Palm Beach/Broward County line at 26.3
Broward/Dade line at 25.97
Palm Beach/Martin line at 26.97

[T'Bonz]

Neat site, thanks.

**curses at Hurricane**

[shortwave]

where do you think a turn towards the north might occur and at about what speed?

[jpigott]

mike - if your track, Derek and his crew, or SouthernWX track verifies then I guess i'm going to have a long weekend sitting about 1 mile west of the intracoastal in palm beach gardens, FL

[Juno Beach]

Thanks MW...

I know I don't know much, but from what I read and see, I just don't grasp what will move this storm north to their forcast tracks given the increased forward speed.

Am I missing something?

[Canelaw99]

Question - it's already at 26.4N, 73.5 W at 5pm...what does that do for your at 8pm points???

[MWatkins]

Question - it's already at 26.4N, 73.5 W at 5pm...what does that do for your at 8pm points???

I think the turn is going to take place inland if not later than that.

.5 degrees in 3 hours is exactly 10 knots...which is the speed of the 5PM advisory. On that pace it will be right on the global guidance at 8PM.

Also...this note from the discussion reverberates what we have been saying all day:

SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE CENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA

MW

[Juno Beach]

mike - if your track, Derek and his crew, or SouthernWX track verifies then I guess i'm going to have a long weekend sitting about 1 mile west of the intracoastal in palm beach gardens, FL

I'm right up the road from you in The Bluffs. I was hesitating boarding up the 2 remaining sliding glass doors, but I'm not buying this northern turn, so I'll do one tonight and one in the morning. I just hope the power and cable holds out until after college football tomorrow

[Collier Canetracker]

Mike, you wrote: "On that pace it will be right on the global guidance at 8PM."

Does that mean you think the turn will occur as forecast by the NHC? Does being "right on" with global guidance at 8pm mean that you have confidence in the track the NHC released at 5pm?

I thought you said that we'd see landfall between 26.5N and 27.5N. Do you still believe that, and which end of that range is more likely for landfall?

[MWatkins]

Mike, you wrote: "On that pace it will be right on the global guidance at 8PM."

Does that mean you think the turn will occur as forecast by the NHC? Does being "right on" with global guidance at 8pm mean that you have confidence in the track the NHC released at 5pm?

I thought you said that we'd see landfall between 26.5N and 27.5N. Do you still believe that, and which end of that range is more likely for landfall?

No...it will be faster than that. The recon report from 2109Z or 5:09PM puts the hurricane at 73.7W already. It did not move .2 degrees in 9 minutes. The position at 5PM was too slow and the hurricane is moving faster than 10 knots.

MW

[Ixolib]

Question - it's already at 26.4N, 73.5 W at 5pm...what does that do for your at 8pm points???

I think the turn is going to take place inland if not later than that.

.5 degrees in 3 hours is exactly 10 knots...which is the speed of the 5PM advisory. On that pace it will be right on the global guidance at 8PM.

Also...this note from the discussion reverberates what we have been saying all day:

SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE CENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA

MW

With the comment above of "...if not later than that", is it possible Jeanne will make to the GOM and become a panhandle threat?

[MWatkins]

The reason for the shift in the 18Z GFS is simple...the ridge was properly initialized with the upper air soundings launched at 18Z. Otherwise we would have seen a turn to the north again probably into a weaker ridge.

MW

[JPmia]

Mike...for us South Floridians that are planning to reinstall our shutters/plywood tomorrow...when should we have all those preparations done tomorrow? Based on your reasoning.

[jlauderdal]

Mike...for us South Floridians that are planning to reinstall our shutters/plywood tomorrow...when should we have all those preparations done tomorrow? Based on your reasoning.

do some tomight like i did and be done no later than noon tomorrow and i think 9 am would be more appropriate.i have been in some nasty leading edge squalls. take it easy everybody and dont kill yourself tomorrow morning rushing..good way to get injured. we are going to have to put em up anyway so why not spread it out.