Norcross Just Explained something Interesting

[Guest]

He was talking bout the different models & a sampling of the atmosphere that was done by a series of weather balloons that were launched from all across the mid-Atlantic states the SE & Fla.As we all know there are models that bring Jeanne into south Fla (he pointed out PB County specifically) & other models that turn Jeanne before reaching the SF coast.It seems that the data collected by these weather balloons earlier today are in best agreement with the model(s) that bring the storm into South Fla PB County.This particular model is the one that also has done the best with Jeanne so far.

Norcross said "This has officials at the NHC concerned"

[jagesq]

Well, if I was at the NHC I would be concerned too. I love the NHC and I think they do amazing work. But the NHC relies heavily on their models, and as we all know, your only as good as your best models. Undortunately most of them seem to be underestimating the strength of the ridge, and big time.

[oviedofan]

Well, if I was at the NHC I would be concerned too. I love the NHC and I think they do amazing work. But the NHC relies heavily on their models, and as we all know, your only as good as your best models. Undortunately most of them seem to be underestimating the strength of the ridge, and big time.

What would be cool is someone putting up the various forecasts that NHC did for Charley, Frances and Ivan and then compare the 2-3 day forecast to the 6-8 hour forecast. I remember Ivan coming all the way through the middle of the state of Florida , 3-4 days before and we all know where it went. Any takers?:)

[hiflyer]

wonder what model he is talking about...don't see a one on multiple sites that go mid Palm Beach or further south....to be honest Norcross got really over the top on Frances....I have been staying away that station because of him.

[KeyLargoDave]

I didn't see it, but I assume he's saying the upper air sounding are confirming the strenth/location/persistence of the high, more as it is shown by the "left" models, making them seem more accurate at least as far as current conditions.

Any other insight appreciated.

[jlauderdal]

He was talking bout the different models & a sampling of the atmosphere that was done by a series of weather balloons that were launched from all across the mid-Atlantic states the SE & Fla.As we all know there are models that bring Jeanne into south Fla (he pointed out PB County specifically) & other models that turn Jeanne before reaching the SF coast.It seems that the data collected by these weather balloons earlier today are in best agreement with the model(s) that bring the storm into South Fla PB County.This particular model is the one that also has done the best with Jeanne so far.

Norcross said "This has officials at the NHC concerned"

nhc talks about this in the 5 pmdisco

[hiflyer]

Well, if I was at the NHC I would be concerned too. I love the NHC and I think they do amazing work. But the NHC relies heavily on their models, and as we all know, your only as good as your best models. Undortunately most of them seem to be underestimating the strength of the ridge, and big time.

What would be cool is someone putting up the various forecasts that NHC did for Charley, Frances and Ivan and then compare the 2-3 day forecast to the 6-8 hour forecast. I remember Ivan coming all the way through the middle of the state of Florida , 3-4 days before and we all know where it went. Any takers?:)

Here is the Frances NHC archive track...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/FR ... hics.shtml

[oviedofan]

To Hiflyer: I was actually trying to see if someone could compare the forecasted track 3-5 days before by the NHC vs the actual track that happened for all 3 hurricanes. Looks like they were wrong on all 3 quite a bit 24 hours or more prior to landfall.

[Agua]

To Hiflyer: I was actually trying to see if someone could compare the forecasted track 3-5 days before by the NHC vs the actual track that happened for all 3 hurricanes. Looks like they were wrong on all 3 quite a bit 24 hours or more prior to landfall.

Look on Weatherunderground under the "Verification" link. They animate the predicted paths vs. actual path.

[SCHawkFan]

Let's see, the NHC has put up hurricane warnings from south of Miami north. What are they not doing to prepare south Florida for a hurricane?