ARPS Forecasts of Hurricane Jeanne

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Wthrman13
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ARPS Forecasts of Hurricane Jeanne

#1 Postby Wthrman13 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:12 pm

Hey folks,

I thought you all might be interested in some forecasts of Hurricane Jeanne I've performed using the ARPS model. I have a page that I literally just put up at

http://www.caps.ou.edu/~ddawson/tropical/jeanne/

I initialized the ARPS on a 27 km resolution domain using the 12Z 23 Sep. (yesterday) GFS for initial and boundary conditions. I ran it out to 72 hours. Nothing real shocking: it takes the hurricane basically due west with a landfall early morning on Sunday in SE FL. Take a look if you would like. I'm also running a 9 km nested grid to try to capture some more of the inner structure. I have a 3 km run or to planned, but these will likely not be anywhere close to real time (I have other research to do :) ). I'm also running another 27 km run initialized from 12Z this morning. I'll put stuff up as I am able, but at least this is somewhat real-time.

Also, I have some runs of Charley that I've performed, but I haven't put those up on the web yet. I also plan to do similar runs of Frances and Ivan. All this is for a project for my Tropical Meteorology class I'm taking this semester, and who knows, I may try to crank a journal article out of it at some point.

Dan
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#2 Postby rainstorm » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:22 pm

thanks
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#3 Postby PurdueWx80 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:23 pm

Dan - Thanks for the model runs. I'd just like to inform everyone that Dan went to school at Purdue before heading to OU, and he is one of the brightest people I've ever met. We should all look forward to hearing more from him on S2K!
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APRS-CW0262
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#4 Postby APRS-CW0262 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 5:43 pm

You can also monitor weather data at my station APRS CW0262
Loc. 27.19N 80.17W.
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Wthrman13
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#5 Postby Wthrman13 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:24 am

Hey folks,

I updated my page with a forecast initialized from the 12Z GFS fields today. You can compare it with the run from yesterday. The landfall point is a little further north and a little later. Sorry the run doesn't go out much further than right after landfall. I can easily extend the run later to see where it goes from there.

Once things settle down, I'll build up the web page a little more with additional, higher-resolution forecasts. Of course, by then it won't be real-time :).

Dan
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