WHY they keeps saying its going to go north..its going west!

[Noah]

i keep hearing turn to north, where are they getting this from..im know nothing about hurricanes but can see its going west west west!!

[feederband]

it will follow ridge. just where the ridge will be is the question.

[Noah]

it will follow ridge. just where the ridge will be is the question.

the ridge looks strong and holding does it not to you?

[feederband]

it will follow ridge. just where the ridge will be is the question.

the ridge looks strong and holding does it not to you?

agree to both also with the speed it is going i believe the turn will be well inland .could even get into the gulf.

[HurricaneQueen]

It is currently following the predicted path (more or less). During a 24-36 hours period of time (now) it would move west and then get picked up and moved north after that. This means, IF the ridge does what it is supposed to do, the north turn would start sometime tomorrow either before or after landfall (according to the various models).

Not that I buy that scenario for a minute but that's why it is moving west (from an amateur's perspective). I am following Derek Ortt and Mike Watkins unless proved otherwise.

Lynn

[Noah]

it will follow ridge. just where the ridge will be is the question.

the ridge looks strong and holding does it not to you?

agree to both also with the speed it is going i believe the turn will be well inland .could even get into the gulf.

Isnt it amazing how amatures can seem to sometimes predict better than our science. I hope im prooved wrong.. i see it inland before the turn and possibly in the gulf and up the panhandle again

[drudd1]

[/quote] Isnt it amazing how amatures can seem to sometimes predict better than our science. I hope im prooved wrong.. i see it inland before the turn and possibly in the gulf and up the panhandle again[/quote]

First, let me say that I am an amature myself, but I have to say, that if we are right it is pure blind luck. I equate it to the years I fished professionally. On any given day, you may outfish me, but over the long haul, I will come out on top. Reason, you may get lucky, but my knowledge of the quarry, habititat, effects of weather on the bite, etc., will yield fish consistently over time. Now this may be a silly analogy, but the same principal can apply with this situation........We just look at the image, and what we see is what we see, period. We have no idea how the complex steering mechanisms of these storms work, and as such, if the storm isnt moving in a certain direction, we doubt it ever will, even though all the indicators are there for a turn.

With that being said, you may be right, lucky guess, but right, and the meteorologists may be wrong. Time will tell. Bear in mind, however, that the storm is well within the cone at this point, and as the NHC has stressed, dont pay attention to just the point.

[Stormsfury]

Jeanne is following NORTH of the NHC guidance at this time by about 20 NM ... yes, the ridge is CURRENTLY there and quite strong, but it's also transient, and continuing to move and will continue to move offshore, and the return side is what allows the channel to turn from west to a recurvature north ...

SF

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

also, the north turn is not expected till sat pm-sun am

[JoanFlorida]

How does a forecaster determine how fast a front will move, if at all? Wind speeds surrounding the ridge?

[Sean in New Orleans]

i keep hearing turn to north, where are they getting this from..im know nothing about hurricanes but can see its going west west west!!

They know what they are talking about...they kept saying that to New Orleans with Ivan, yet over 1 million fleed from New Orleans (just in case). I didn't even receive a tenth of an inch of rain from Ivan...because, it DID turn North...it was one of the happiest moments I've had this year!!!

[corpusbreeze]

I have to say the NHC is pretty good at the end game this year.

[Noah]

Isnt it amazing how amatures can seem to sometimes predict better than our science. I hope im prooved wrong.. i see it inland before the turn and possibly in the gulf and up the panhandle again[/quote]

First, let me say that I am an amature myself, but I have to say, that if we are right it is pure blind luck. I equate it to the years I fished professionally. On any given day, you may outfish me, but over the long haul, I will come out on top. Reason, you may get lucky, but my knowledge of the quarry, habititat, effects of weather on the bite, etc., will yield fish consistently over time. Now this may be a silly analogy, but the same principal can apply with this situation........We just look at the image, and what we see is what we see, period. We have no idea how the complex steering mechanisms of these storms work, and as such, if the storm isnt moving in a certain direction, we doubt it ever will, even though all the indicators are there for a turn.

With that being said, you may be right, lucky guess, but right, and the meteorologists may be wrong. Time will tell. Bear in mind, however, that the storm is well within the cone at this point, and as the NHC has stressed, dont pay attention to just the point.[/quote] an excellent analogy and well taken...

[T'Bonz]

Guys, you rock, but it's amateurs.