Dry air troubles... W semicircle looks weak

[calidoug]

[Anonymous]

And how would dry air get into the system with no shear?

[Amanzi]

I think Sheer and dry air are 2 very different things!

[calidoug]

"And how would dry air get into the system with no shear?"

From all the dry air around it. Shear has nothing to do with it.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I don't think that this storm is very impressive. It certainly will not be catastrophic to Florida in any way. This system is more of a nuisance storm that will down some trees, but, not topple homes, IMO.

[djtexillini]

If it stays like it is maybe. But if it strengthens to cat 3 itll be more than a nuisance.

[BayouVenteux]

"And how would dry air get into the system with no shear?"

From all the dry air around it. Shear has nothing to do with it.

The bright intense blues surrounding Jeanne indicate the drier air.

[Eyes2theSkies]

there is no such thing as a nusance hurricane rather cat 1 or cat 5 they are all bad i was in tropical storm jerry that dumped over 20 inches of rain on me....and believe me that is not a nusance when your home is flooded.

[Scorpion]

Geez stop being so technical about every little problem that storm has. This is NOT Ivan and is a 100 mph storm. It is not supposed to look great. I think it looks really good for a Cat 2.

[caneman]

I don't think that this storm is very impressive. It certainly will not be catastrophic to Florida in any way. This system is more of a nuisance storm that will down some trees, but, not topple homes, IMO.

110 to 115 mph projection at landfall is hardly a nuisance. Tell that to people who could be without power for 3 weeks, some roof damage, flooding, tornado etc...... Not to mention that Floridians have dealt with the stress of 4 systems in the last 5 weeks. Lost food twice, power out couple times, evacs, missed school, work, etc..... More like a real pain in the A$$.

[tronbunny]

That dry air in the circle around it is probably subsidence.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary4.php#s

Subsidence - Sinking (downward) motion in the atmosphere, usually over a broad area.

[SootyTern]

Plus, this storm is going to be a 'nuisance' to the same batch of people & places that just had Frances go through -tarps on roofs that will blow off and leak again, having all the last couple of weeks of cleanup being undone, etc. The effects will be worse, whatever it's strength, than if it was hitting a 'fresh' location. News today warned that whoever loses power with Jeanne may be out for quite awhile because the repair folks are spread so thin right now.

[BayouVenteux]

I don't think that this storm is very impressive. It certainly will not be catastrophic to Florida in any way. This system is more of a nuisance storm that will down some trees, but, not topple homes, IMO.

Hmmm. Poor choice of words. Ivan "Part Deux" was a nuisance storm, Sean...this is a hurricane, a large mature hurricane that will be moving over warmer water in the next 18-24 hours. I don't really think you mean that, for if this was sitting at 27N 88W moving NW, you'd feel quite differently, I'm certain.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and attribute your remarks to late season stormwatch fatigue.

[calidoug]

Tronbunny, no, it isn't.

There's just some particularly dry air in the environment of this storm.

You can watch how it developed on the large-scale WV loop at RAMDIS:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Select the WV channel on the right, and click in the white box.

[Sanibel]

Look at that SOB in that color shot. Nobody's calling it small anymore.


We have a clear sky here. You can see that dry air slot stretching over us on the IR image. From living here I'd say the air is mildly negative as far as tropical latency. Slightly cool. We'll see what tomorrow's sun and Gulf Stream does...

[Guest]

Geez stop being so technical about every little problem that storm has. This is NOT Ivan and is a 100 mph storm. It is not supposed to look great. I think it looks really good for a Cat 2.

I second that.

Still a formidable storm thats gonna do some damage.I think we are aware that this is not in the category of a Andrew or Ivan but it will inconvenience some people.

[Hyperstorm]

Outflow continues to be fairly impressive in all quadrants and has expanded throughout the day. Therefore, I doubt the dry air is what's causing the western semicircle to be devoid of major convection.

The hurricane doesn't have a well-defined inner core and most probably has not been able to tighten up because it has been traveling over 26C SSTs. I can guarantee you that until the inner-core becomes well established there will be little intensification.

We have seen this situation too many times and learned how the majority, if not all of the storms, have had trouble re-establishing their inner-core even with the warmest SSTS around. If by tomorrow we don't see much intensification (115mph+), I really doubt that just before landfall we'll see any.

Once a hurricane's inner-core has collapsed, it tends not to strengthen significantly afterwards...

[ROCK]

Outflow continues to be fairly impressive in all quadrants and has expanded throughout the day. Therefore, I doubt the dry air is what's causing the western semicircle to be devoid of major convection.

The hurricane doesn't have a well-defined inner core and most probably has not been able to tighten up because it has been traveling over 26C SSTs.

I can guarantee you that until the inner-core becomes well established there will be little intensification. We have seen this too many times and we have seen how the majority, if not all of the storms have had trouble re-establishing its inner core even with the warmest SSTS around. If by tomorrow we don't see much intensification (115mph+), I really doubt that on Sunday we'll see any.

Once a hurricane's inner-core has collapsed, it tends not to strengthen significantly afterwards...

I agree....good post...looking like Frances in my eyes but shouldnt weaken at landfall......

[NFLnut]

I don't think that this storm is very impressive. It certainly will not be catastrophic to Florida in any way. This system is more of a nuisance storm that will down some trees, but, not topple homes, IMO.

110 to 115 mph projection at landfall is hardly a nuisance. Tell that to people who could be without power for 3 weeks, some roof damage, flooding, tornado etc...... Not to mention that Floridians have dealt with the stress of 4 systems in the last 5 weeks. Lost food twice, power out couple times, evacs, missed school, work, etc..... More like a real pain in the A$$.

.. lost tons of money because people aren't returning to their normal patterns and buying things and spending money. It's KILLING business owners like myself. Every time that it appears their is a little life returning to the normal local economy we get hit with another d4mn storm! The ONLY people making money right now are contractors, and God bless 'em, but the rest of us need to make a living too!

August & September are normally my busiest months of the year and Oct through December are my slowest. We usually save money from this time of year to get through the end of the year. I am SERIOUSLY concerned about getting through the end of the year. And I DON'T want to take out a loan!

[tronbunny]

doesn't look like Jeanne has swallowed any of the surrounding dry air, it looks as if it's just "getting out of the way.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html