Jeanne Outracing NHC Forecast Track

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Click on the loop and then check the box for forecast track. You'll see the NHC's 12 Hr position fron 5:00 PM was out to 75.3. Looking at the loop it will reach 75.3 by 1:00 A.M at the latest, at least 4 hours early. This could be an indication of a stronger ridge and a later turn.

[jlauderdal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Click on the loop and then check the box for forecast track. You'll see the NHC's 12 Hr position fron 5:00 PM was out to 75.3. Looking at the loop it will reach 75.3 by 1:00 A.M at the latest, at least 4 hours early. This could be an indication of a stronger ridge and a later turn.

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im sticking with delray to jupiter

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Click on the loop and then check the box for forecast track. You'll see the NHC's 12 Hr position fron 5:00 PM was out to 75.3. Looking at the loop it will reach 75.3 by 1:00 A.M at the latest, at least 4 hours early. This could be an indication of a stronger ridge and a later turn.

\

im sticking with delray to jupiter

Im thinking people in Broward and Palm Beach counties are going to wake up in the outer bands (even stronger winds for those late risers).

[rbaker]

just looking at water vapor from yesterday to right now, still think its going to go further west than track has right now, simply because ridge is stronger than the two models the gfdl and gfs have shown the ridge to be weaker than it really is. Nogaps has been the best performer and still is.

[Guest]

This appears to be making a b-line straight for WPB.

[jagesq]

Heres a question, I have Yom Kippur Services tomorrow at 9 am, in West Palm BEach Fl, about 1 mile from the ICW. I really feel like I have to go, but will it be safe. I have a 30 minute drive, meaning I will drive from 830-900, and from 1130-12:00. What kind of weather can I expect.

[Foladar]

Heres a question, I have Yom Kippur Services tomorrow at 9 am, in West Palm BEach Fl, about 1 mile from the ICW. I really feel like I have to go, but will it be safe. I have a 30 minute drive, meaning I will drive from 830-900, and from 1130-12:00. What kind of weather can I expect.

You should be OK

[Brent]

Heres a question, I have Yom Kippur Services tomorrow at 9 am, in West Palm BEach Fl, about 1 mile from the ICW. I really feel like I have to go, but will it be safe. I have a 30 minute drive, meaning I will drive from 830-900, and from 1130-12:00. What kind of weather can I expect.

Should be fine.

[Lebowsky]

Jage I flew out of PBIA this afternoon and the word was they would shut down at 4:00pm tomorrow. If they can fly planes at those times, driving should be fine.

Incidentally, flying in fairly heavy winds is fun so long as you take your valium beforehand.

[sprink52]

All of our shutters are up except a few in the back on the pool sliders.The generator that was a star during and after Frances is gased up as are the Tahoe, F-150 SuperCrew and the 528 BMW. I have 20 more Gals. spare for the generator. Got a weeks worth of water. Plenty of eats.The fact that my wife & I haven't killed each other is amazing. The month of September has been really TOUGH around here. I have'nt had an adjuster here from Frances yet...good thing or I'd have two deductbles!! At the end of the day I have to say that hurricanes suck.

[Derecho]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Click on the loop and then check the box for forecast track. You'll see the NHC's 12 Hr position fron 5:00 PM was out to 75.3. Looking at the loop it will reach 75.3 by 1:00 A.M at the latest, at least 4 hours early. This could be an indication of a stronger ridge and a later turn.

Nope.

NHC's 12 hour forecast position in the 5PM forecast wasn't a forecast for 12 hours from 5PM (5AM tomorrow morning).

It was a forecast for 12 hours from 2PM (2AM tomorrow morning.)

The NHC forecast track is based on the previous synoptic time to the advisory (0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z.)...in the case of the 5PM forecast, 2PM.

[KeyLargoDave]

Derecho, I don't understand this, or I've been misunderstanding it for years. To be clear, you are saying that when I see this...

Initial position
12 hr
24 hr
etc.

...That it doesn't mean 12 hour from the initial position at 5 p.m. or 11 p.m. or whatever time the advisory is issued. I can't believe that's the format if they're really saying, "We don't mean 12 hours from now, we mean 12 hours from three hours ago."

That just seem wrong. Or am I missing something?

[VERMONTsnow]

this thing is pickin up speed and strength!!!! Hope people on the FL coast staying on top of this!1

[Derecho]

Derecho, I don't understand this, or I've been misunderstanding it for years. To be clear, you are saying that when I see this...

Initial position
12 hr
24 hr
etc.

...That it doesn't mean 12 hour from the initial position at 5 p.m. or 11 p.m. or whatever time the advisory is issued. I can't believe that's the format if they're really saying, "We don't mean 12 hours from now, we mean 12 hours from three hours ago."

That just seem wrong. Or am I missing something?

Nope, that's what I'm saying. THey mean 12 hours from 3 hours ago. I understand the confusion though.

The reason that's done is so the the model run initializations match up with the beginning of the forecast positions.

[KeyLargoDave]

W O W. No wonder they're having trouble making people understand the graphics, if simple text like "+12 hr" has a hidden meaning.

But I get what you're saying. Thanks for taking the time to explain.