West & South Being Over Exaggerated On This Board Right

[tropicstorm]

From what I've been reading on the board this evening, it seems that a lot of folks here are really doing a leap of faith onto the "more westerly track now expected later tonite" bandwagon. I've been reading many posts predicting a south Florida (even Dade county) landfall to a Ft. Meyers event to a track due west across the peninsula into the GOM with a Panhandle landfall. Wow! Yes, the track MAY be shifted a bit more to the west at 11 pm but, this does NOT mean that Jeanne will continue across the Florida peninsula on a due west course and emerge into the GOM. What it DOES mean is that the consensus models are geting more in agreement with the NW / north turn a litlle bit later and a little bit more westerly. This still brings Jeanne on a pretty sharp curve northwest / then north / and possibly northeast UP the Florida peninsula , NOT in a southerly direction down the state. Jeanne will be an east Florida and central Florida event, not a south or west Florida event.

[Tertius]

Palm Beach County IS South Florida, and Broward may be facing a significant impact as well. Let's be clear; I do NOT want this storm here, but current indicators are not very encouraging that we will avoid it. I simply don't see any significant northern component until after landfall unless she slows down.

Believe me, we aren't happy about it.

[caneman]

From what I've been reading on the board this evening, it seems that a lot of folks here are really doing a leap of faith onto the "more westerly track now expected later tonite" bandwagon. I've been reading many posts predicting a south Florida (even Dade county) landfall to a Ft. Meyers event to a track due west across the peninsula into the GOM with a Panhandle landfall. Wow! Yes, the track MAY be shifted a bit more to the west at 11 pm but, this does NOT mean that Jeanne will continue across the Florida peninsula on a due west course and emerge into the GOM. What it DOES mean is that the consensus models are geting more in agreement with the NW / north turn a litlle bit later and a little bit more westerly. This still brings Jeanne on a pretty sharp curve northwest / then north / and possibly northeast UP the Florida peninsula , NOT in a southerly direction down the state. Jeanne will be an east Florida and central Florida event, not a south or west Florida event.

Not a West Florida event. That is funny because NOGAPS, CMC and UKMET and ECMWF all seem to disagree with you. And FYI 60+ miles and hour winds over here does knock out power. Hardly a non-event.

[PurdueWx80]

Thanks for erasing my post..whoever did it. Anyway, my point is that this person is offending half of the people on this board with his post and ALL of his capitalized words that say YOU are wrong, and this is NOT a southern Florida storm. I suppose it is one opinion among many, but it obviously could've been stated with more tact. I often get frustrated with the "forecasting" and comments people make on this board, so I understand the author's feelings. It just seems he/she went slightly out of line. These are tense moments for everyone in FL - no one is out of the woods - this is not NOT a central/southern/western/eastern/northern FL storm yet. It is still east of the Bahamas - and everyone in the warning should be ready. Rant over.

[LakeToho]

I agree that this could plop itself toward the GOM, however, I do think the track will shift west somewhat tonight. I do not think this will be a landfall Dade/Broward event, but most likely somewhere from Palm Beach to maybe Kennedy Space Center. The storm is currently east of Boca Raton, so close to the Broward/Palm Beach county line. While we do not "see" anything that will turn the storm on more northerly track (not sure I buy into the extreme northerly tracks that are being illustrated, but then again I do not buy into a dead west or WSW track either), I am sure there is reason for all models to eventually have a more northerly track that maybe revealed to us over the next 24 hours. Nothing is certain, and truly stranger things have and will happen. Andrew did wobble a little south, but this storm at present is not an Andrew. So lets just chill, hope for the best, and make the best of this..

[feederband]

Next question .If it was to take a sharp turn like some of the models indicate wouldn't have to slow down alot to make such a turn??

[Sanibel]

Still though, few are defending their west/south calls. Not saying it won't...

[Foladar]

Next question .If it was to take a sharp turn like some of the models indicate wouldn't have to slow down alot to make such a turn??

That's what the news said.

[rtd2]

This happens on every storm! People end up arguing on direction when we all know there are several degress on wnw and nw ect. for the bigger storms 99% of the time its a WOBBLE or stair step over time!

[MWatkins]

We will find out in the end. Note that the GFS is following what some of us have been saying for days now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

MW

[rdcrds]

You must understand this board has and always will point to the worst case all the time as it gets replies.If you were to post it is going to curve before it hits the state nobody wants to read that so therefore to get there post read and replied to they post that.And as far as the GFS it takes it more south but does NOT bring it along the west coast.

The only one right now that does is nogaps and it is more north and east then last night!

[cape_escape]

Personally...I think this is Florida's storm period, and that means to me that any and every Floridian has the right to worry, and justly so! Nerves are frayed over here on the West Coast, and the thought of even 50 mile per hour winds sends many of our hearts straight to our stomaches! Our city has been shut down repeatedly, our neighborhoods resemble the slums from the wood covered windows and stacks of debris, our children can't quite understand what is happening, and all of Florida is effected whether it takes a direct hit or not! We are all in this together, we are all worried, and we all have questions...so forgive us if we voice it!