00Z Eta...very interesting ridge scenario

#1 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:13 pm

So, it actually strengthens the ridge overnight, and keeps Jeanne on a pure W to slightly south of west heading until landfall near ~FLL tomorrow night. While I understand the Eta is not a global, the ridge scenario shown would definitely plow the hurricane into southern FL rather than central or northern FL.

Check it out:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... 12hr18hr24

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:17 pm

How well does this model work in the short term..Can anything be put into this scenario?

I ask this because i've come to understand that this is a good short range model.

#3 Postby **Canelaw99** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:19 pm

Can you possibly post a link to a loop of the model instead of just that one static pic? Thanks!

#4 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:21 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:So, it actually strengthens the ridge overnight, and keeps Jeanne on a pure W to slightly south of west heading until landfall near ~FLL tomorrow night. While I understand the Eta is not a global, the ridge scenario shown would definitely plow the hurricane into southern FL rather than central or northern FL.

Check it out:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... 12hr18hr24

that will be enough of that modeling

LakeToho · #5 Postby **LakeToho** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:24 pm

I think that has got to be my favorite model this evening. Taking the storm away from my area would be the best thing that happened. I am not sure how good ETA is with tropical systems, I think for the most part, its disregarded, but an interesting scenario and one that I hope plays out. (Sorry South Florida)

#6 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:24 pm

That site doesn't have a loop - there should've been 5 panels....0, 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours. Yes, the Eta is a very good model, even through 84 hours many times. Now with tropical systems, it has a bad rap, but has been doing relatively well this season. It has a higher resolution than the other global models we've seen, because it has a much smaller, nested domain. The higher resolution, and better physics, allows for more accurate progs in general. That's why I said it is important to focus more on what it shows for the ridge - it's forecast for Jeanne is very consistent with it's ridge pos'n. Now if the other 00Z's do this, it will become apparent that this ridge means business.

LakeToho · #7 Postby **LakeToho** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:29 pm

Heres a loop of the ETA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#8 Postby **Canelaw99** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:35 pm

LakeToho - um, thank you for the loop, but :eek:

for what it shows

#9 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:58 pm

This is the scenario that has played over and over again in my head for the last two days. Another Andrew, albeit not as strong ,but much more far reaching. Looks as if it is going straight through my house on the way to the GOM. Then has the strong side going past my son's in Tampa and from there???? Not the panhandle, please not the panhandle!

Guess all of Florida should try to get some rest tonight. Tomorrow night may be very different!

NFLnut · #10 Postby **NFLnut** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 10:13 pm

No one wants this, obviously, and I don't want anyone to get it, but ...

I am still without a good portion of my roof from Charley, and Frances left my kitchen with another 2" of standing water. Add to that that Frances was unbelievably unnerving because 70-80 mph winds just went on and one forever, and I would VERY much welcome this track to the one that currently runs the NE quad RIGHT across my house (which is exactly what I got from Charley).

cape_escape · #11 Postby **cape_escape** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 11:45 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:This is the scenario that has played over and over again in my head for the last two days. Another Andrew, albeit not as strong ,but much more far reaching. Looks as if it is going straight through my house on the way to the GOM. Then has the strong side going past my son's in Tampa and from there???? Not the panhandle, please not the panhandle!

Guess all of Florida should try to get some rest tonight. Tomorrow night may be very different!

I can feel your pain HQ...I live in the Cape and have two sisters who live in Dunedin! :cry:

paul e · #12 Postby **paul e** » Fri Sep 24, 2004 11:52 pm

>>So, it actually strengthens the ridge overnight<<

It sure does. It takes the HIgh from off Delmarva, and slides it south and West.. UP to the very last frame, at 24 hrs, when it moves it, Finally, to the East.. but by then, its TOO LATE.. Landfall has already been Made!!!!

cape_escape · #13 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:21 am

paul e wrote:>>So, it actually strengthens the ridge overnight<<

It sure does. It takes the HIgh from off Delmarva, and slides it south and West.. UP to the very last frame, at 24 hrs, when it moves it, Finally, to the East.. but by then, its TOO LATE.. Landfall has already been Made!!!!

Could this be another Andrew senerio forming, you think?

00Z Eta...very interesting ridge scenario

00Z Eta...very interesting ridge scenario

Re: 00Z Eta...very interesting ridge scenario

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