Friday evening Jeanne forecast analysis

[SouthernWx]

Hurricane Jeanne continues to move westward late this evening...with a well defined eye and likely intensification as it encounters warmer waters near the Bahamas and near southeast Florida. The forward speed of the hurricane has increased....to near 14 mph by my estimation, and this motion will bring hurricane conditions to the northwest Bahamas by morning...and across the Florida east coast by mid-evening tomorrow.

I strongly urge all residents in the hurricane warning area to rush all preparations to completion as soon as possible tomorrow. Please take this hurricane seriously....it is a large hurricane, and will likely be more intense than Frances was....with a long duration of hurricane force winds, high tides, and torrential rains.

My reasoning hasn't changed much this evening. Jeanne is moving steadily west underneath a strong ridge of high pressure extending to 80/81° west. I expect Jeanne to pass near or over Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Island, and move inland along the Florida east coast in the Palm Beach to Stuart area tomorrow (Saturday) evening....as a strong category 3 hurricane. Due to the large size of Jeanne's eyewall, I expect hurricane conditions to affect much of Florida's east coast from Broward county northward to Cape Canaveral.

Once inland, Jeanne should recurve over the sunshine state.....my current forecast track takes the hurricane from near Palm Beach/ Jupiter over Lake Okeechobee...northwestward toward Lakeland, then recurving northward into Georgia near Valdosta. Once inland and weakening, a track toward the northeast at increased forward speed appears likely....taking the weakening tropical storm across central South and North Carolina, then over southern Chesapeake Bay/ Delmarva area before re-entering the Atlantic. It now appears likely Jeanne will also impact southeastern New England...either as a tropical storm or strong extratropical storm system.

Again, please take this hurricane seriously. It will likely be more intense than Frances was....and may be almost as strong as Ivan (near Pensacola) at time of landfall.....potentially a very dangerous and destructive hurricane..

Currently:

10 PM EDT....FRI SEPT 24, 2004
latitude 26.5 N - longitude 74.7 W
maximum sustained winds: 85 kt (100 mph)



Forecast:

+12 hr
SAT SEPT 25 -- 10 AM EDT (1400z)
26.6 N - 77.2 W....100 kt
(near Great Abaco Island, Bahamas)


+24 hr
SAT SEPT 25 -- 10 PM EDT (0200z)
26.9 N - 79.8 W....110 kt
(approaching Palm Beach and Jupiter, Florida)


+36 hr
SUN SEPT 26 -- 10 AM EDT (1400z)
28.0 N - 82.0 W....80 kt
(inland near Lakeland, Florida)


+48 hr
SUN SEPT 26 -- 10 PM EDT (0200z)
29.6 N - 82.9 W....65 kt
(inland west of Gainesville, Florida)


+60 hr
MON SEPT 27 -- 10 AM EDT (1400z)
31.6 N - 82.8 W....50 kt
(inland west of Waycross, Georgia)


+72 hr
MON SEPT 27 -- 10 PM EDT (0200z)
33.9 N - 81.1 W....45 kt
(inland near Columbia, South Carolina)



Extended forecast:

+96 hr
TUE SEPT 28 -- 10 PM EDT (0200z)
37.5 N - 76.0 W....45 kt
(over southern Chesapeake Bay)


+120 hr
WED SEPT 29 -- 10 PM EDT (0200z)
43.0 N - 67.0 W....50 kt
(extratropical/ approaching Nova Scotia)


My next forecast analysis is scheduled around 10:00-10:30 a.m. Saturday


PW