They call that a shift west in the track??

[rocknole]

Did I miss something? The local central florida mets were saying all evening that the track would shift west at 11:00 and it barely did anything. Am I the only one that is scratching their head at why the NHC seems to want to keep this storm so far north and to the east?

[T'Bonz]

Looks like it went further north, not left.

[rxdoc]

Avila...GFS

[NateFLA]

LoL.... it's because I turned my anti-hurricane magnet on

[T'Bonz]

Oh my bad..I didn't see that it was Avila.

'nuff said.

[hurricane1020]

im new at this what does that mean about avila

[rocknole]

im new at this what does that mean about avila

I believe that there is a large sentiment on the board that Avila doesn't like to stray much from the GFS model, which in and of itself is not held in high regard here.

[Brent]

im new at this what does that mean about avila

He's the NHC forecaster who wrote the package tonight. People make jokes about him all the time. He's known as Dr. Death for the tropics too. LOL

[LakeToho]

Avila only writes the discussions he does unilaterally create the track. There is a team of forecasters that agree upon the track..

[caneman]

Avila only writes the discussions he does unilaterally create the track. There is a team of forecasters that agree upon the track..

Oh but his unique stamp is always on it.

[Canelaw99]

I thought it shifted a little north also. Did it actually, or is it because the time frame is shortening??? As of 5pm, Miami was still in the cone, but as of 11 we're completely out of it - doesn't really make sense to me....

[LakeToho]

Yeah he doesnt write well, not as good as Stewart, but he is not solely responsible for the forecast..

[hurricane1020]

thank you

[StrongWind]

I thought it shifted a little north also. Did it actually, or is it because the time frame is shortening??? As of 5pm, Miami was still in the cone, but as of 11 we're completely out of it - doesn't really make sense to me....

At 5PM forecast NW track started right off the coast of Ft. Laud. Now it's much earlier.

[Derek Ortt]

from what I have heard, the track is created by the forecaster on duty, not by a team of forecaster. There is typically just one forecaster on duty at a time.

[Hyperstorm]

Yeah he doesnt write well, not as good as Stewart, but he is not solely responsible for the forecast..

They agree on a general track, but the analysis of the forecaster on shift weighs in more when forecasting a point...

[rocknole]

from what I have heard, the track is created by the forecaster on duty, not by a team of forecaster. There is typically just one forecaster on duty at a time.

Derek,

Does this track make any sense to you at all? It seems like the NHC was beginning to see that the ridge was stronger than expected and then took a step back tonight.

[inotherwords]

He may not write as well because English isn't his first language. I didn't know this until I read a book on Hurricane Mitch and he was quoted and discussed often in the book. He's from Cuba originally.

Not defending him, just trying to offer a possible explanation about his writing style.

[LakeToho]

Take Note that Lawrence wrote the Karl Discussions, Roberts/Avila wrote the Lisa, Halbach wrote the Ivan. There is more than one forecaster on duty at one time..

[rdcrds]

If you take reading 101 you would see the guidence shifted a little west.If you look at all the models they were a little west of them already so therefore no need to shift it when the only one that is more west right now is the nogaps.

Why not try and pray it to miss the coast all the way rather then try and find some way to have to cross the whole state and do massive damage.