0Z GFS...Even Faster to the SFL Coast

[MWatkins]

Hate to the be the first to report this...but the 0Z GFS with the new synoptic data starts to bring the core of the hurricane in right where the 18Z GFS left off but about 6 hours faster with the solution. This is the forecast point to verify at 2AM tomorrow:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

Not surprising...but unfortunate.

MW

[Windsong]

Mike, does it go north from there or continue west?

[MWatkins]

Mike, does it go north from there or continue west?

By 42 hours the center of the hurricane appears to be approaching Tampa Bay...over the peninsula and heading north-northwest.

MW

[JPmia]

Mike...what would that track mean for Broward County as far as wind?

[caneman]

Mike, does it go north from there or continue west?

By 42 hours the center of the hurricane appears to be approaching Tampa Bay...over the peninsula and heading north-northwest.

MW

Yeah I noticed that too. Thanks Pal. Was without power for 3 days with Frances and lost 2 trees. Anyone heard that it could take up to 3 weeks to restore power this time due to Ivan or is that rumor?

[fci]

So where does this model show landfall to be?
26.5?
27.0?
27.5????

[VERMONTsnow]

FOR CRIKES SAKES, I'M WORRIED PEOPLE WILL BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN SPEED.

[PurdueWx80]

Hey guys...look what is behind Jeanne. The GFS has developed this low on every run over the last day or two. We might want to start watching for a blowup of convection out there.

[calidoug]

The 0Z GFS shows landfall right at 27N about .5 S of the NHC 11PM avila-track

[MWatkins]

Mike...what would that track mean for Broward County as far as wind?

Based on the track and my gustimate of the landfall point...it would suggest hurricane force winds sustained in the northern 1/3 of the county and all of Palm Beach county.

Won't have the text measurements for another 2 hours or so but it looks like a landfall in the model in northern Palm Beach County...but I cant tell for sure.

MW

[Guest]

FOR CRIKES SAKES, I'M WORRIED PEOPLE WILL BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN SPEED.

Please leave

[LakeToho]

Looks like Ft Pierce to me.. Not too far off from NHC Track.. By the 06Z we should get a better feel with the new Gulfstream IV data digested.

[Foladar]

hey MW..what do you think Miami-Dade (south area) will get? just trop storm winds maybe?

[tcmitch2]

MIke, with the persistent High pressure above Jeanne, she won't come across west to SWFLA will she?????

[LakeToho]

By the way this track is very similar to the 18Z.. So not much of a change other than the little NW then NE move..

[PurdueWx80]

By the 06Z we should get a better feel with the new Gulfstream IV data digested.

This data should have already been assimilated into the 00Z run. Apparently the obs showed a slightly stronger ridge, hence, the further south (and more importantly further west) track in the GFS.

[MWatkins]

Dade county could expect tropical storm force winds sustained with gusts to hurricane strength.

Also...NOGAPS is out through 24 hours and the solution looks to be just a small tad south of the previous one owning to some wrap-around ridging in the mid layers. Again...not good for Palm Beach.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... .namer.gif

MW

[MWatkins]

By the way this track is very similar to the 18Z.. So not much of a change other than the little NW then NE move..

Actually the track is about 6 hours faster than the 18Z which is why the hurricane gets further into the state than the previous run.

MW

[miamijaaz]

Hmmm... The NOGAPS seems to predict landfall between Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. Boca maybe?

[MWatkins]

Hmmm... The NOGAPS seems to predict landfall between Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. Boca maybe?

Hard to tell with the resolution we get in the public data fields...but the 36 hour forecast looks very much like the GFS. In any case that storm is going to be very disruptive to all of south and now central FL.

MW