00z nogaps/00z gfs S. Fl landfall

[Vortex]

models are coming together now and landfall is likely between fort lauderdale and west palm beach. Latest gfs near or just south of palm beach and the nogaps between fort lauderdale and palm beach.

[Foladar]

Highly doubt Ft. Lauderdale, actually if you ask me.
But anywho: it was posted here in the most part: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=47547

[rdcrds]

And GFS does take it north llike the others and nogaps still takes it across the state.And i think out of all models the gaps is the only one that takes it all the way to the west coast.

[PurdueWx80]

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 528_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 530_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 531_50.gif

GEM takes it pretty close to the GFS...SE FL then towards Tampa.

[Guest]

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/528_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 530_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 531_50.gif

GEM takes it pretty close to the GFS...SE FL then towards Tampa.

Hey Purdue it looks like the ETA scenario you talked about earlier is starting to come together.

Maybe this high does mean business.

[PurdueWx80]

The south shift in models is interesting, even if it is subtle. And now that we are 24 hours from landfall (less probably), we have to believe that the models are relatively close, w/ regards to the ridge strength/location and the ultimate interaction it has with Jeanne. True forecasters will probably quit using model guidance now, and will nowcast, or use pure observations from satellite/radar/surface/upper levels.

[calidoug]

GFS has landfall around 27 N, sort of Jupiter to Ft. Pierce

ETA is a little further south

[THead]

Do any of those 'true forecasters' work at NHC??

[MWatkins]

The south shift in models is interesting, even if it is subtle. And now that we are 24 hours from landfall (less probably), we have to believe that the models are relatively close, w/ regards to the ridge strength/location and the ultimate interaction it has with Jeanne. True forecasters will probably quit using model guidance now, and will nowcast, or use pure observations from satellite/radar/surface/upper levels.

Not ure if I qualify there...but I have been loading RUC loops all night long to look at the flow to the north/west of the ridge. No appreciable changes through the 12 hour cycle.

MW

[PurdueWx80]

I noticed that too Mike. The experimental RUC forecasts at FSL show way further south than anything...almost through the Keys and into the Gulf. They appear to have initialized the storm too far south, so I've completely thrown them out.