0Z GFS...Even Faster to the SFL Coast

[miamijaaz]

I guess its deja-vue all over again: Avila's 11 pm track seems destined to be shifted south and west by the next Forecaster on duty.

[Guest]

Possibly a chance that South Floridians wake up tomorrow to a forecast track shifted south somewhat.

[LakeToho]

Still Looks like a Ft Pierce landfall to me.. Could be just a tad south..

[Doc Seminole]

Hey guys...look what is behind Jeanne. The GFS has developed this low on every run over the last day or two. We might want to start watching for a blowup of convection out there.

I personally don't want to watch anything ELSE , THIS.... ENTIRE..... YEAR!!!!!!!!!

[HurricaneQueen]

This model closely correlates with the 00Z ETA run as shown in the link below. It is from another thread posted by PurdueWX:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/eta/00/850_m_loop.shtml

Night all. It's going to be a long weekend.

Lynn


PS Amended to say the ETA appears to be a little bit further south

[tronbunny]

I have to like a quicker landfall..
less time to suck up gulfstream warmth,
less time under the heavy winds.
the faster Jeanne's fat arse gets outta here.

[MWatkins]

Whelp...

The CMC is on board with the scenario listed above.

The UKMET is also bringing the core to the coast but at a 285/290 angle that seems very unrealistic based on the shape of the ridge.

There is not a golbal model that still hugs the coast at 0Z. Only the GFDL may do that and that comes out in an hour.

Basically though...that scenario is now out. We are locked in I think. Enjoy your electricity while you can.

MW

[Terry]

Per faster movement........doesn't that mean stronger winds inland?

[Brent]

Per faster movement........doesn't that mean stronger winds inland?

Yep.

[miamijaaz]

Mike,

Where are the CMC and UKMET showing landfall at?

[cape_escape]

MIke, with the persistent High pressure above Jeanne, she won't come across west to SWFLA will she?????

I'd like to know this too!! Somebody?? MW? Derek? AFM?

[MWatkins]

Looks like the UKMET is up near Melbourne (hard to tell..again due to resolution)...the CMC looks to be just north of the GFS.

MW

[jlauderdal]

Possibly a chance that South Floridians wake up tomorrow to a forecast track shifted south somewhat.

yes..everything is in place for a shift south and west. models plus the ridge = shift. depends on forecaster so it may take till 11 am but its going to happen

[btangy]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_500.gif

Notice the 590dm heights over Georgia and Alabama. The ridge seems to be holding strong and the western solutions (NOGAPS, GFS) will most likely verify.

[LakeToho]

Any change will not be drastric. Somewhere between WPALM and Melbourne. Maybe a little West, we shall see what tommorow holds. Think this will flip flop a little throughout the day.. Though if it stayed south I would be extremely happy..

[cape_escape]

Possibly a chance that South Floridians wake up tomorrow to a forecast track shifted south somewhat.

yes..everything is in place for a shift south and west. models plus the ridge = shift. depends on forecaster so it may take till 11 am but its going to happen

So you expect the cone to encompass more of SW Florida now right? SO Naples may be back in the projected possible path again?

Kevin Cho - Naples, FL (Sophomore: Naples High School)

I really hope not Kevin! Get some rest, its gonna be a long day and night tomorrow!

[CourierPR]

MW, I see that the 2 AM bulletin shows a faster forward motion. Time to get some rest. The day of reckoning is coming.