Rapid Intensification, Tell Me Its NOT Possible Please

[THead]

This is my biggest fear at this point. I can handle a cat 3 just to the north of us, but if this thing bombs out in the last 12 hours before landfall, it of course would be catostrophic. Please tell me its not possible. I'm just worried because i've seen how hard it is to predict intensity......

[chris_fit]

I believe it is....

http://www.aboutmylife.net/users/chris_fit

[andrew_the_beast]

Very possible. latest ir shows colder colds forming around w and n of eye wall. The east and south of eye wall already have cold tops. Also the eye is getting smaller which means intensification. Doesn't look good before landfall.

[yoda]

Well its possible... there is no shear.. but with 28 degrees Celsius SSTs? I know not... IMO I think RIC is a no.. but listen to your mets..

[btangy]

Air is quite stable and dry around the storm (e.g. CAPE of 0 in the Nassau sounding this evening). The atmosphere isn't primed to allow Jeanne to rapidly intensify.

[Sanibel]

I don't think so because the air is slightly cool here...

[tallywx]

962 MB at latest recon. fix. That's falling pressure.

[fci]

I don't think so because the air is slightly cool here...

Funny you mentioned it but here in Palm Beach County, it was hotter than hell before Francis (while putting up shutters) but pleasantly cool today while putting up shutters for Jeanne.

[PurdueWx80]

Air is quite stable and dry around the storm (e.g. CAPE of 0 in the Nassau sounding this evening). The atmosphere isn't primed to allow Jeanne to rapidly intensify.

That is some VERY dry air through most layers of the atmosphere. There is usually dry air on the periphery of a TC, but it is clearly drier than normal w/ a PWAT of only 3.6 cm.

[jpigott]

PurdueWx - what type of intensity range would you look for at landfall (min, max, and best guess)

[BillC]

While we're asking questions ... I have one to add to the mix. My recollection over the years is that tropical cyclones typically intensify more during daylight hours rather than overnight. Is that generally true or am I mistaken?

[PurdueWx80]

PurdueWx - what type of intensity range would you look for at landfall (min, max, and best guess)

Climatology, SST's, storm motion, shear and outflow all favor continued strengthening.

Dry air favors weakening or steady-state, and there is a lot of it that could possibly be ingested into the storm. While there is overwhelming evidence for major deepening, the dry air should keep this from being a Cat 4 or 5. However, I don't see it being any weaker than it is right now, and the best estimate would be max sustained winds between 110 and 130 mph. If Jeanne is capable of mixing out the dry air efficiently, and the eyewall consolidates and remains closed, a Cat 4 is possible, but unlikely in my mind.

[Windy]

(Though that sounding is almost a day old...)

[PurdueWx80]

Sh*t - good point, and I'm usually good at checking that before anything else. Guess that means it's getting late!

[Sanibel]

I evacuated, but a neighbor told me we took 110-140mph winds.

Our porch screen was torn away frame and all down to the bare deck. Minor roof trim damage and major tree damage.


Charley approached Sanibel headed for Bowman's Beach on a direct track under rapid category 4 intensification. He suddenly veered left and did an arc around the island staying 10 miles offshore. This pretty much saved my house. The trough responded and kicked Charley back right and right over North Captiva Island 14 miles to our north. It cut a new 400 yard channel into the barrier island splitting it in half. Though there are no roads to that island there are several houses 2 miles north of where he made the cut. I heard a man crawled from his crumbling house to the fire station where they couldn't let him in because they couldn't get the door open for the winds.

We lucked out on surge because Charley was moving 22mph forward speed. Combined with his small core, this wasn't enough to push a surge. The tall trees on Sanibel are ravaged and the perspective has changed in many places. My most shocking sight was seeing a house with 3 foot-thick pines leveled on all 4 sides standing in the middle unscratched. We had a metal-framed lanai violently ripped from the deck only to have three plastic flower pots I forgot to take in sitting on the stair top at the opposite end of the porch untouched.

A private weather station on North Captiva recorded a gust of 178mph! Charley's deadly winds were confined to the inner 4-5 miles...

[PurdueWx80]

Here is Miami's...from tonight...there is even more dry air (3.62 PW) and no convective instability (CAPE = 0). CAPE probably isn't a good thing to look at for tropical systems...you start dealing w/ other instability there, and have to think about static stability.

[CourierPR]

Yoda, why would a SSt of 28 degrees celsius not be conducive to strengthening? Please enlighten me.

[THead]

thanks for all the replies, I think I feel better......until I saw the 2 am and the increased forward speed , etc. Although I guess I'd rather have her come sooner and leave quicker, so unlike frances.

[yoda]

Yoda, why would a SSt of 28 degrees celsius not be conducive to strengthening? Please enlighten me.

That is about 85 degrees F... so not VERY warm water. I was suggesting its not conducive to RIC... but it could happen none the less.

[PurdueWx80]

28C is 82F.....82 and 85 are both very warm...85 is definitely more than warm enough for strengthening.