6Z 'cane models...in good agreement now w/ NHC

weatherlover427 · #2 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:44 am

Ouch.

logybogy · #3 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:51 am

The one to watch is XTRAP. If you notice, it's been trending south all day. Models are crap.

Watch the short-term motion as a guide.

#4 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:53 am

Um...I think you realize this but I'm not sure..the Extrap is just the extrapolation of the current motion. Basically, if Jeanne stays on the EXACT same course she is on now, that's where she'd end up. It's just a sort of guidance, not scientific at all really.

Foladar · #5 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:53 am

logybogy wrote:The one to watch is XTRAP. If you notice, it's been trending south all day. Models are crap.

Watch the short-term motion as a guide.

Isn't XTRAP just if it kept the current motion? :| I don't think it's a model.

CourierPR · #6 Postby **CourierPR** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:53 am

The initial position shown by those models appears to be well north and east of Jeanne's current position. Am I wrong?

#7 Postby **Windy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:53 am

logybogy wrote:The one to watch is XTRAP. If you notice, it's been trending south all day. Models are crap.

Watch the short-term motion as a guide.

lol -- look out Mexico!

logybogy · #8 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:54 am

Yeah, but with that ridge not budging anytime soon and appearing to strengthen.

XTRAP is a great guide to landfall. As long as the ridge holds, XTRAP will tell you where it will hit.

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:02 am

More often than not, a tropical system does not follow the XTRAP/extropolation model.

Extrapolation:

1. To infer or estimate by extending or projecting known information.
2. Mathematics. To estimate (a value of a variable outside a known range) from values within a known range by assuming that the estimated value follows logically
....from the known values.

Courtesy of Dictionary.com

#10 Postby **GulfHills** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:27 am

logybogy wrote:Yeah, but with that ridge not budging anytime soon and appearing to strengthen.

XTRAP is a great guide to landfall. As long as the ridge holds, XTRAP will tell you where it will hit.

I have a hard time understanding these ridges. Do you have a satellite view of the one holding down Jeanne?

#11 Postby **THead** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:51 am

Honestly at this point, I think we can just make a Quake Net out of the model computers, it would be put to better use. Jeanne has totally broken the mold. Like someone said in another thread, its time to nowcast and observe. The models just can't keep up with Jeannie.

Agua · #12 Postby **Agua** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:54 am

GulfHills wrote:
logybogy wrote:Yeah, but with that ridge not budging anytime soon and appearing to strengthen.

XTRAP is a great guide to landfall. As long as the ridge holds, XTRAP will tell you where it will hit.

I have a hard time understanding these ridges. Do you have a satellite view of the one holding down Jeanne?

Look at the water vapor loop on the NHC Sattelite page. Look at the Western Atlantic loop because the Floater does not provide a wide enough view to see what is going on.

6Z 'cane models...in good agreement now w/ NHC

6Z 'cane models...in good agreement now w/ NHC

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