5AM NHC Track shifts slightly south

logybogy · #1 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:40 am

Landfall looks like in Martin/St. Lucie County as a Cat 3.

Foladar · #2 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:41 am

Doesn't look south to me? looks north more if any.

yoda · #3 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:41 am

logybogy wrote:Landfall looks like in Martin/St. Lucie County as a Cat 3.

The X box...

logybogy · #4 Postby **logybogy** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:42 am

I fixed the image.

GNWeather · #5 Postby **GNWeather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:42 am

Here is the 11pm and 5am forecast tracks, the one further N and E is the 11pm one, the one shifted to the S and W is the 5am.

yoda · #6 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:43 am

Ft. Pierce is right on eyewall if 5 AM track is correct.. :eek:

Foladar · #7 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:46 am

GNW, i only see one track? :|

yoda · #8 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:46 am

Foladar wrote:GNW, i only see one track? :|

I see two... :?:

mobilebay · #9 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:47 am

Once again the NHC HUGS the GFS and it's disciples. I think the track will be much further south and west. IMO. There is a whole lot of GFS lovin going on.

Foladar · #10 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:48 am

shrug..its 210 miles away

yoda · #11 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:49 am

mobilebay wrote:Once again the NHC HUGS the GFS and it's disciples. I think the track will be much further south and west. IMO. There is a whole lot of GFS lovin going on.

Not really...

http://weather.net-waves.com/td11.php

#12 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:49 am

The GFS did not "credit" the ridge north of Ivan enough, and it appears is doing hte same for Jeanne.

WPB or Just South is my estimate for landfall.

#13 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:50 am

hhhmmm "GFS lovin"

Can i rent that on DVD?
lol
The NHC is addicted to their GFDL, which is a tainted child of the GFS.

I say: "Down with the GFS"
-Eric

sfwx · #14 Postby **sfwx** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:51 am

Fort Pierce took a hard hit from Frances. Another hit will be devastating.

Eric

yoda · #15 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:51 am

ericinmia wrote:hhhmmm "GFS lovin"

Can i rent that on DVD?
lol
The NHC is addicted to their GFDL, which is a tainted child of the GFS.

I say: "Down with the GFS"
-Eric

The GFDL is very good w/in 60 hours... and the GFS w/in 48.

mobilebay · #16 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:51 am

I've seen no other Globals that for East. Period.

#17 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:53 am

But it still has to compensate for the GFS.
The GFS is statistacaly good also in the sub 80 hour time frame because it is run in its highest resolution. I just don't agree with its intialization, or snyoptic feature progression.
-Eric

mobilebay · #18 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:56 am

ericinmia wrote:But it still has to compensate for the GFS.
The GFS is statistacaly good also in the sub 80 hour time frame because it is run in its highest resolution. I just don't agree with its intialization, or snyoptic feature progression.
-Eric

BINGO! Also, the GFS, and the GFDL has been sliding further west with each recent run.

Foladar · #19 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:56 am

How come the news is saying north of Palm Beach most likely, if your Ft. Lauderdale or less you should feel safe.

yoda · #20 Postby **yoda** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 3:59 am

mobilebay wrote:
ericinmia wrote:But it still has to compensate for the GFS.
The GFS is statistacaly good also in the sub 80 hour time frame because it is run in its highest resolution. I just don't agree with its intialization, or snyoptic feature progression.
-Eric

BINGO! Also, the GFS, and the GFDL has been sliding further west with each recent run.

http://weather.net-waves.com/td11.php

5AM NHC Track shifts slightly south

5AM NHC Track shifts slightly south

Re: 5AM NHC Track shifts slightly south

Who is online