Discussion vs. track

KeyLargoDave · #1 Postby **KeyLargoDave** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:34 am

The 5 am says:
"...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES ON WHEN AND WHERE JEANNE
WILL TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION
UNTIL LANDFALL IN FLORIDA IN 24 HR...THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ...

Continuing the current motion would make landfall at 26.5. On one hand they say, OK, it's going to keep going west into Florida -- but the track still shows almost one degree further north than it is tracking now.

That's not quite "continuing the current motion" in the forecast, although they do mention 270 to 275 motion, so maybe that's the wiggle room.

#2 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:36 am

yeah i posted elsewhere the same thing.

Its completely contradictory. 270 is straight west... 275 is a little wiggle wwnw.

The Track, and many models start moving her wnw now. But the forecast actually states it will head almost 336 miles west?

interesting...
-Eric

mobilebay · #3 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:40 am

Here are the differences in where the turn will occur. MOdels= left. NHC=right. Thus the Quote " we are east of Guidence". Hmm. Where have I heard that before? :roll:

KeyLargoDave · #4 Postby **KeyLargoDave** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:42 am

This is also interesting. TV mets are saying "26.5, if it stays there, that's West Palm Beach."

But West Palm Beach is at 26 degrees 50 minutes, not 26.5 degrees.
26 degrees 30 minutes (26.5 degrees) is Boyton Beach.

Maybe splitting hairs, but 20 miles can make a lot of difference to somebody's roof.

KeyLargoDave · #5 Postby **KeyLargoDave** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:46 am

Bevin just was interviewed on Ch 6 and said, yeah, it could go straight west all the way. It's not at all likely it would dive further south, but could wobble a bit south. Probably won't turn until landfall.

So head's up. People were partying on South Beach at 4 this morning, they may wake up late today and find a hurricane not that far from Miami.

Lockhart · #6 Postby **Lockhart** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:01 am

If it goes straight West and doesn't go South, Miami probably won't get any hurricane force winds that aren't unusual gusts. So, I think Miami is perfectly fine.

mobilebay · #7 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:07 am

Also of interest... The new GFS is further south and west, now had JEanne hugging the west Coast of Florida almost in the GOM. Dead over Tampa. Do you see a pattern here?

NC George · #8 Postby **NC George** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:15 am

KeyLargoDave wrote:This is also interesting. TV mets are saying "26.5, if it stays there, that's West Palm Beach."

But West Palm Beach is at 26 degrees 50 minutes, not 26.5 degrees.
26 degrees 30 minutes (26.5 degrees) is Boyton Beach.

Maybe splitting hairs, but 20 miles can make a lot of difference to somebody's roof.

Yeah, you are splitting hairs. They can't predict within 20 miles where it will strike. That's why everyone in the watch/warning should prepare for the storm, rather than relying on the storm taking the exact track predicted.

birdwomn · #9 Postby **birdwomn** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 5:57 am

mobilebay wrote:Also of interest... The new GFS is further south and west, now had JEanne hugging the west Coast of Florida almost in the GOM. Dead over Tampa. Do you see a pattern here?

I could have done just fine w/o that little tidbit of info. ugh!
I'm hping that's just wrong. We don't need anything going in the GOM.

(Thanks for the info, I think)

#10 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 6:28 am

Yes MobileBay I do :eek:

. I have a bad feeling about Jeanne. I think it will be worse tha Frances here in the Tampa Bay area. Frances was a weak cat. 1 by the time it arrived here, but Jeanne may be a strong cat.1 or weak cat.2 if it maintains or increase it's forward speed. We are ready!

Robert 8-)

Discussion vs. track

Discussion vs. track

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